2035 grid decarbonisation goal ‘out of reach’

The government’s goal to decarbonise Britain’s power system by 2035 is now “out of reach” because the increase in low carbon generation required is simply not feasible, according to new analysis by Aurora.

The consultant claims that to achieve the net zero generation goal by 2035 an additional 38.5GW of offshore wind would be required alongside 4.4GW of pumped storage and 1.7GW of nuclear.

In addition, Britain’s 8.4GW interconnector capacity will need to more than double and the power system will require 11.3GW of carbon capture use and storage (CCUS) and 1.4GW of hydrogen generation.

Meeting the 2035 power decarbonisation goal would require increasing offshore wind capacity more than fourfold, nuclear capacity by 35% and pumped storage capacity by over 150%, Aurora’s analysis shows.

However, it adds that these increases are “simply not feasible” given current development and consenting timelines, uncertainty around market design, the pace of grid expansion, and the nascent nature of key technologies, such as CCUS and hydrogen, it says.

For example, the analysis shows that the retirement of existing power plants means nuclear capacity is likely to be one third below its existing 6GW, well short of the increase required.

It is realistic to assume that the Sizewell C plant, which has yet to receive a final investment decision by the government, will not be fully commissioned until 2038.

And the existing nuclear stations at Hartlepool, Heysham and Torness are all old and slated to leave the system between 2025 and 2030, decreasing the total nuclear capacity on the system by more than 3GW, it says.

In addition, just over half (4GW) of the 7.2GW of pumped storage required is likely to have been deployed. High costs and long development timelines alongside GB’s geography pose major barriers to the deployment of this capital-intensive technology, according to Aurora.

Adopting a more conservative measure of the greenhouse gas removal by bioenergy CCUS than that used by the Climate Change Committee but in line with academic literature, also pushes back the grid decarbonisation date, it says.

However Britain is on track to secure the 17.3GW of interconnector capacity, which Aurora says is required by 2035, thanks to investment being de-risked through Ofgem’s cap and floor scheme, creating a healthy pipeline of projects.

Aurora claims that Britain can decarbonise its power system by the early 2040s, but this is still “extremely ambitious” and would require unprecedented efforts from investors, developers, transmission system operators and policymakers alike.

On top of meeting the government’s legal 2050 emissions reduction deadline, decarbonising the power system would save British consumers £2.5 billion in energy costs in the event of a Ukraine war-style global gas price shock.

Marc Hedin, head of research for the UK and Ireland at Aurora, said: “The power sector has been at the forefront of emissions reduction in GB for the past 30 years but there is still so much to do, especially considering that a Net Zero Britain relies heavily on a deep electrification of the economy. “There is a high risk that concentrating efforts around an unachievable target will ultimately impede, rather than accelerate, the country’s energy transition.

“While it’s important to promote an ambitious plan, policy makers need to provide a framework that is designed to deliver the target, otherwise it’s wishful thinking. No one invests because of a target.

“Developers, lenders and other key stakeholders need to see a concrete plan, aligned with a realistic target, that supports a stepped-up pace of capital deployment as well as accelerated projects development timelines.”