Blair’s thinktank warns populists could hijack net zero debate

Action needed to cut emissions to net zero is threatened by the “fragile” nature of the political consensus surrounding it, which could be seized on by populist parties, a new report by the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change has warned.

The concern is voiced in a new paper on the depth of political support for action to tackle climate change, co-authored by Tim Lord, the former director of clean growth at the Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy (BEIS), who recently left government to become senior fellow at the institute.

The paper says there is “broad support across demographics for accelerated action in support of net zero”, citing recent public opinion surveys by BEIS showing that the level of this backing is around 80 per cent.

However, this apparent consensus is “fragile”, say the authors because climate change ranks relatively low on voters’ list of concerns.

“While there is broad support across demographics for accelerated action in support of net zero, this apparent consensus is fragile”, the report says.

The new dividing lines of British politics, which have solidified since the 2016 Brexit referendum and were entrenched by the 2019 general election, “threaten the development of a long-term political coalition to support the action needed for net zero”.

The consensus around climate change is vulnerable to similar challenges to those which existed between the main parties on support for EU membership before the Brexit referendum.

Populist parties internationally, like the far right German AfD, are seeking to make climate change a key plank of their platforms, says the report.

And in the UK, while opposition to net zero is not currently a mainstream political position, the report identifies the risk that fringe parties could seize on local opposition to disruptive initiatives like low-traffic neighbourhoods and net-zero electricity infrastructure developments.

In order to avoid support for tackling climate changes fracturing in a similar way, the report says its advocates should move their focus away from arguments about economic justice or the UK having a moral responsibility to curb emissions.

In order to appeal to more socially conservative voters, the way policies are designed and communicated should create “a strong, patriotic sense of national mission” about tackling climate change and a “meaningful and visible” focus on growth and jobs.

“It will not be enough to rely simply on moral persuasion that action on climate is the right thing to do, nor convince people with more immediate daily concerns using data and forecasts. Getting this right – developing a unifying politics of the environment that speaks to the concerns of the large bulk of the electorate – is perhaps the most important long-term political challenge of our time.”