Boris Johnson doesn’t have a great track record when it comes to the environment. Can that change if he becomes the next leader of the Conservatives – and prime minister?

Boris Johnson’s girlfriend Carrie Symonds has been credited with smartening up his image in the run-up to the leadership campaign. But how much of her environmentalist credentials have rubbed off on Johnson?

The former London mayor is still the favourite to be the next prime minister, despite losing ground to leadership rival ­Jeremy Hunt following the brouhaha over an incident involving the couple last weekend.

Symonds is a passionate environmentalist who left her role as a Tory spin doctor to head Bloomberg’s ecological initiative Vibrant Oceans. This means Johnson is probably slightly more in touch with younger people’s concerns about the environment than the typical 50-plus Tory male, but what does it mean for utility firms contemplating operating under a new prime minister?

Climate commitments

Hunt was quick to signal his commitment to the net zero goal when he included adoption of the net zero target in his five-point pitch to young voters, which he published on the weekend following his decision to stand for the Tory leadership. Since then, he has trumpeted his role as foreign secretary in securing Italian support for the UK’s bid to hold next year’s UN climate change talks.

However it is likely that the greatest focus is likely to remain on Johnson, who has a chequered track record on climate change issues. The government’s former chief scientific adviser Sir David King revealed only last week that when Johnson was foreign secretary, he tried to hush up concerns King raised about cuts to climate change research.

Johnson said in last week’s televised leadership hustings on the BBC that the environment would be at the “centre” of a government led by him.

“We will see the Boris campaign play a heavier nod to environmental and climate issues than otherwise might have been expected,” says Chris Rumfitt, chief executive of public affairs company Field Consulting.

“He is mindful of the need to soften his image after taking a very hardline position on Brexit and recognises that he needs to reach out to the wider electorate,” he adds, noting that Johnson is “very close” to his ­fellow Old Etonian Zac Goldsmith, the MP for Richmond and a former editor of The ­Ecologist magazine.

This focus may not be apparent ­during the leadership contest, given that the ­environment is a second order issue for the typical Tory party member, Rumfitt says: “This won’t necessarily happen during the leadership selection contest due to the ­peculiar nature of the voter base.

“Conservative party members are of a certain demographic, above an average age and not the target for this sort of issue. Whoever emerges from this as prime minister, though, will try to re-energise government policy making on climate.

“[Johnson] recognises the need for the Tories to rebuild their support among younger voters; particularly among the younger electorate there are votes in this.”

Global opportunity

The opportunity to host the UN climate change talks next year will appeal to Johnson’s desire to grab the global limelight.

“He will want to play on the world stage and will see this as an opportunity to do that,” says Rumfitt, adding that Johnson will have noted how his former leadership rival and former Brexit campaign ally Michael Gove has rebuilt his image since he has been secretary of state for the environment.

And he would be right to pay attention, suggests Will Nicolle, researcher at the think- tank Bright Blue. “The environment should be an area that candidates tap into because it’s popular.

“Our research shows that young people want action on climate change and don’t want a retraction on environmental standards after Brexit,” he adds, referring to polling that the think-tank carried out following the 2017 general election, which showed that  climate change is the top issue of concern for 18- to 28-year-olds.

And the urgency surrounding environmental issues has only increased over the past six months as the likes of Extinction Rebellion and the Swedish teenager Greta Thunberg have seized the headlines.

Lawrence Slade, chief executive of Energy UK, told the recent Utility Week Summit that it was “staggering” how many of the Conservative party leadership candidates had expressed full support for the 2050 net zero goal announced by Theresa May on 11 June.

Johnson’s own convictions may not ­matter that much though if he pursues the same style of government that he did when he was mayor of London.

There, the army of deputy mayors he appointed had considerable leeway in the policy areas they were responsible for. A Johnson Cabinet is likely to have more leeway than under the current regime, in which May has tended to keep a tight grip on decisions.

One public affairs insider says: “He was good at delegating and bringing in experts and letting them get on with it. He has a short attention span and doesn’t get into the detail.

“Government appointments under him could become even more important than usual.”

And advisers will have a key role. “With Boris, Downing Street will be the absolute centre of power where decisions are made – advisers will probably be as influential as Cabinet ministers in terms of policy ­making,” says Andy Sawford, managing partner of public affairs firm Connect, which runs the All Party Parliamentary Water Group.

Industry hopes

So what will the industry want to see from whoever enters government next month?

Paul Spence, director of strategy and regulation at EDF Energy, told the Utility Week Summit earlier this month (June) that he hopes climate and energy policy will be among the top priorities for the new prime minister.

“We need to drive a fundamental shift towards a decarbonised economy and that needs to be enabled by investment in low-carbon power.”

Energy offers “fantastic opportunities” for the next PM to make a splash, said Keith Anderson, chief executive of Scottish Power.

“Given a clear framework and direction, there are billions of pounds waiting to be invested. The amount of money being invested in the network system shows the level of appetite to invest in the energy sector in the UK,” he said, adding that the sector could demonstrate a “great track record” in attracting investment.

“If you get the framework and mechanics right, we will create a huge number of jobs. If someone comes in with the right attitude, there are easy wins in terms of expanding the number of projects.”

Michael Lewis, chief executive of Eon UK, identified the need for incentives and targets to encourage energy conservation, reduce the use of gas for heating and foster uptake of heat pumps and district heating systems.

Referring to the recent Budget announcement that homes should no longer be fitted with gas heating from the middle of the next decade, he said: “2025 is great start but we need a lot more ambition.”

Slade agreed there is “tons more” that can be done on energy efficiency, which should become a national infrastructure ­priority, and encouraging renewable generation. “Let’s be prepared to look at the funding mechanism so we can bring different technologies to market.

“Let’s get some serious and long-term understanding about where CfDs [contracts for difference] are going,” he said, adding that there should be a fresh look at the 6GW limit on new auctions.

However Brexit will continue to dog the next PM, just as it has blighted May’s time in Downing Street. Lewis told the Summit that ruling out no deal is essential, branding it a “clearly insane” move.

But Slade urged the next PM not to allow concerns about Brexit to swamp the longer-term issues surrounding climate change.

“Let’s remember that climate change is much bigger than Brexit and get climate ­policy, because if we get the policy framework this industry has proved it can deliver.

“It’s wonderful to have this rhetoric but no value unless we follow up with policies: let’s get this competition done.”

Who could be in – or out

Michael Gove

Gove narrowly missed the final run-off with Johnson to become Conservative party leader. There will inevitably be question marks over whether Gove will win a place in a Johnson Cabinet, given the animosity that has grown following the former’s surprise decision to withdraw his support for his fellow Brexiteer during the 2016 Conservative leadership campaign.

Johnson has said he has no hard feelings towards Gove, but even if he offers a government job, it is unlikely to be the Treasury that the latter covets, says one insider: “The Treasury would be too much of a rival power base.”

If he survives the cull, after making a splash at Defra witah his crusade on environmental issues and against the water companies, Gove is likely to be seeking pastures new. In an interview with The Sunday Times last weekend, Gove was talking up his plans to boost the rate of housing.

Claire Perry

The minister of state for energy and climate change has sat out of the current leadership campaign after taking a leave of absence to care for a close relative. Perry has stated in the past that she is keen to retain the brief if the UK hosts next year’s UN climate change talks, the odds on which shortened last week following the government’s success in winning Italian support for its bid.

Even though she backed Remain in the 2016 referendum, Perry has adopted a less public opposition to a Brexit no deal than her departmental boss Greg Clark, who would seem to have little chance of surviving Johnson’s first reshuffle.

Noting that Johnson would benefit from ensuring strong representation of female ministers, one insider says: “She is quite well liked and respected but can be hard to work with and for. Despite that, people recognise her talent across the party.

“He will be trying hard to keep people like her in the government.”

Zac Goldsmith

A wild card for secretary of state for the ­environment under a Johnson prime ­ministership could be ­Richmond MP Zac ­Goldsmith. Before ­he entered Parliament in 2010, ­Goldsmith was editor in chief of The Ecologist magazine, and he has continued to champion environmental issues in the House of Commons.