CCC: Don’t set new emissions targets yet

The Committee on Climate Change (CCC) has warned the government to hold off on setting new emissions targets following the ratification of the Paris climate change agreement last week.

It should instead focus on addressing a gap in policy which means the UK is off course to meet its “stretching” existing targets.

“The most important contribution the government can make now to the Paris Agreement is publishing a robust plan to meet the UK carbon budgets and delivering policies in line with the plan”, the committee said in a new report. “Current policies, at best, will deliver about half the required reduction in emissions. Acting with urgency to close this policy gap would reduce long-term costs and keep open options for the future.”

The UK is currently committed to reducing emissions by 80 per cent on 1990 levels by 2050 –  a decrease which is meant to provide a fair contribution to limiting the rise in global average temperatures to 2°C above pre-industrial levels. However, the Paris agreement commits signatories to limiting the rise to “well below” 2°C and pursuing efforts to limit it to less than 1.5°C. To achieve these aims it set a target of net zero global emissions in the second half of the century.

The committee said in order to make a fair contribution to keeping the temperature rise below 1.5°C the UK would need to cut emissions by between 86 per cent and 96 per cent on 1990 levels by the middle of the century. It said it is “too early” to set new targets but the option should be kept under review: “The five-yearly cycle of pledges and reviews created by the Paris Agreement provides regular opportunities to consider increasing UK ambition.”

Reiterating the recommendations of its annual progress report, the committee outlined a series of short-term measures which could be enacted to fill the “policy gap” and put the UK on the course to meeting its current targets.

Most importantly, there need to be “clear, consistent and credible” policies for the decarbonisation of heating. They should ensure that new homes are “highly energy efficient and ready for low-carbon heating” and that existing ones are fitted with heat pumps and district heating. The government should prepare to make a series of decisions in the next parliament on the role of hydrogen.

The development of carbon capture and storage (CCS) is also “critically important”. Following the cancellation of the £1 billion commercialisation competition in November, the committee said the government should pursue a “strategic approach” to CCS based around industrial clusters. There should be “separate support” for shared CO2 transport and storage infrastructure.

Although the Contracts for Difference scheme is an “effective policy” for the support of low-carbon generation, “no auctions have taken place since 2015 and none are planned for the cheapest technologies” – onshore wind and solar. More contracts should be auctioned off and signed in the 2020s to reduce emissions intensity in the power sector to below 100 gCO2/kWh by 2030.

In order to the meet the longer-term goal of net zero emissions in the second half the century, the committee said the government will need to set out a strategy for removing greenhouse gases from the air using technologies such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage and carbon-storing materials. “A strategy for deployment at scale by 2050 should start now given the timescales inherent in bringing new technologies to market,” it added.

The CCC also released a separate report on the implications of the Brexit vote for the UK’s climate targets. It said the carbon budgets the government has legislated so far are “at least as challenging as the EU’s commitments to tackle climate change”. The accounting rules for the carbon budgets may need to be adapted if the government decides to exit the EU Emissions Trading System.  

Other policies previously set at the EU level, such as energy efficiency standards, will need to be “preserved and strengthened” in the future. The UK should remain part of, or replicate, those EU schemes which are working effectively. There is the potential to improve on some policy goals, for example “ensuring heat policy focuses more generally on low-carbon heat, rather than solely renewable heat”.

Shadow energy minister Barry Gardiner said: “We need to deliver comprehensive action to keep the UK safe from dangerous climate change. But despite signing up to new commitments, the government’s own advisors and independent lawyers have now questioned ministers’ ability to fulfil these obligations.

“The Tories have ruled out the cheapest form of clean energy, and scrapped schemes to create warmer homes and build low-carbon industries. These gaping holes in Tory policy are pushing up costs for consumers, and opening up a 50 per cent shortfall in achieving our legal target for 2030.”

He continued: “The government must now urgently produce a credible plan for meeting our targets, and ensure the UK’s industrial strategy reaps the benefits in jobs and investment of an orderly, early transition to an economy powered by clean energy.”

Renewable UK deputy chief executive Maf Smith said: “The CCC is right to highlight that fact that new auctions for low-carbon contracts can help drive down the cost of people’s electricity bills. When it comes to putting the consumer first, onshore wind deserves a clear route to market, as it’s the cheapest way to generate new power.

“The UK government’s leading role in securing the global agreement on climate change in Paris is being backed up by firm action at home. Renewables are playing a major role in our commitment to decarbonise, as well as delivering affordable, home-grown power to British homes, factories and offices”. 

Head of environement and energy at the Institution of Mechanical Engineers Jenifer Baxter said: “The findings of the Committee on Climate Change confirm that the lack of clear energy policy is jeopardising not only our energy security, but also our ability to meet the UK’s stretching carbon targets. In terms of the electricity sector, there has been a policy vacuum which is hampering investment into new power plants, as well as research and development into emerging technologies that can potentially bridge the imminent supply gap.”

She continued: “The government has outlined plans for the winding-down of coal-fired generation and with just one nuclear reactor currently being planned, the UK looks set to experience a new dash for gas. Without CCS technology this will mean we are locking ourselves into relying on unabated fossil fuel power for generations to come.”