CCC: Energy independence goal requires radical decarbonisation

Liz Truss’ new goal to secure the UK’s energy independence by 2040 can only be achieved by pursuing radical decarbonisation policies that rely on testbed technologies, according to a senior figure at the Climate Change Committee (CCC).

Dr David Joffe, head of carbon budgets at the CCC, told Utility Week in an interview that the advisory body’s number crunching suggests that the prime minister’s target to make the UK a net exporter of energy is “probably just about achievable”.

Of the CCC’s decarbonisation scenarios, Joffe said the best matched for delivering energy independence by 2040 is ‘tailwinds’, which explores how the net zero target could be met by 2042, eight years ahead of that set out in law.

The tailwinds scenario includes big improvements in energy efficiency, the rapid roll-out of heat pumps and much greater deployment of onshore wind and solar as well as nuclear power, he said.

The CCC’s sixth carbon budget report, which was published in 2020, says this scenario is “highly optimistic…stretching feasibility in a wide range of areas and going beyond the current evidence in others.”

Under this kind of scenario, the UK’s oil production and consumption would in balance and the country would be a net importer of gas but potentially a net exporter of clean electricity by the end of the next decade, Joffe said: “That seems just about feasible.

“It would take an extremely ambitious programme across sectors and even then, you can probably only just get to being energy independent.

“It’s basically pulling all of the levers to be able to get to being a net exporter by 2040.”

However, it is “unrealistic” to expect fracking to get “anywhere close to filling” the gas demand gap by that date, while North Sea gas and oil production is likely to fall over the next two decades as reserves are exhausted, he added: “The only way to get to energy independence is to cut our demand for fossil fuels even faster and that means a radical push for decarbonisation but it needs to be a strategic push.

“This needs to be a strategic priority, not just for climate reasons but also for energy security reasons.”

He said energy independence is “absolutely” consistent with net zero: “It doesn’t need new fossil fuel production in order to achieve that because we can generate so much clean energy in this country that we could be a net exporter of electricity to a significant degree if we chose to take that path.”