Changing the story to achieve net zero

Net zero will not be achieved by central planning alone – it will involve every person making their own “calculated gambles”. To encourage the public to do this, the utilities sector will need to focus on storytelling skills every bit as much as engineering expertise. Energy policy expert Tom Lowe discusses how we can have these conversations and why now is the time to retire the term “consumer”.

Decarbonising power, heat and transport to achieve net zero is humanity’s greatest challenge and we have limited time. So, now is the time to work together for the common good. To change the stories we tell ourselves. To change how we act.

Storytellers and engineers are important for net zero

We need to build our way out of the mess we’ve created. There are big engineering challenges ahead. But net zero is not just the human race’s greatest engineering challenge.

People across the world must change their minds about what is normal. To change decisions about how they live their lives. And for that we need storytellers.

The brilliant Dr Rose Chard pointed me to this article by James Clear. This line particularly struck me:

“You can’t expect someone to change their mind if you take away their community too. You have to give them somewhere to go.”

That involves people developing a story of how they moved from “climate change is someone else’s problem” to “I need to take action in the next 10 years”.  This means encouraging and then accepting people as they move from one camp to another. We should do this with our friends and family. Our neighbours. Our extended social group. Lots of small gentle nudges.

Oh, and we should avoid talking about “consumers”. No one thinks of themselves as a “consumer”. We’re not economists. Stories are about people. Let’s talk about people.

We all must change

Everyone needs to make calculated gambles over the next 15 years. That’s what change is. And we need to start making those gambles now.

This might mean buying an electric vehicle when we next change our car, or insulating our house as we prepare to buy a heat pump. It might mean flying less, or cycling more.

Not everyone will act at the same time. Some will lead, others will follow. That’s ok.

In the early 20th century, the rich started to replace their horses with cars. That was a gamble. Mounting a combustion engine on wheels for personal use was new. But the benefits of the car outweighed the horse.

We now need the descendants of those people to go electric. This goes beyond the cold logic of the choice. We need to appeal to people’s desire to do the right thing. And the vanity of possessing the newest and best technology.

We must act without knowing everything

Acting now is an insurance policy against what we don’t understand. Climate models are complicated, the interactions are probabilistic and the world is a big place. And accurately modelling the effect of billions of actions may always be beyond us.

It is possible that a 1.5C increase in average temperatures will be far more destructive than expected. After all, that average hides big temperature increases in places like the Arctic Circle. The feedback loops from melting ice could be more destructive than models predict.

We buy insurance for the worst-case scenarios. To avoid colossal financial damage if our car is written off or our house burns down.

That’s what acting now is – insurance against the worst-case financial damage.

Technology change in energy is going to thrill and unnerve people

Change is always unnerving and most people take time to embrace the unknown but, on balance, energy technology is going to thrill people.

When we first harnessed electricity, it was seen as magic – and dangerous. People were afraid of overhead wires and they worried about electrical house fires.

Then electricity brought smokeless lighting and cold food through refrigeration, as well as entertainment through the radio and television.

The rewards far outweighed the risks.

In the next few years, people will start to get paid for when they use electricity. If they can adjust when they charge their car or heat their home, their energy will cost them less. When the software and hardware work well, it will seem like magic.

Energy systems must be designed for all

We must actively look at decarbonisation from the perspective of women, minorities and the disadvantaged. Their stories are so important for the design of our energy systems.

Able-bodied white men like me should seek out perspectives that are different to ours and listen openly and intently.

It is not enough to look at data and think about “technology-neutral” solutions. Data is amazing and we need more of it. But aggregate data hides the stories of real people. No amount of data can show the benefit of women feeling safe when charging their car in a well-lit area.

The local is as important as the national

The energy system has been national for 100 years. The electricity grid consists of huge pylons with underwater cables connecting with countries hundreds of miles away.

But these systems can be built to be local. Not next-door neighbour local but certainly local at the size of a few towns or a small city.

Breaking up the electricity system into smaller chunks helps us find solutions that work based on geography. Some parts of North-East England will have a green hydrogen story to tell, while the south coast will tell a nuclear story.

We should avoid the national great getting in the way of the local good.

The solution will be messy and unpredictable

Regulation is important for energy. At least, I hope it is – I’ve spent 10 years working on it. We look to regulators to protect us and to make sure products are safe to use.

But regulators – like all people – struggle to predict the future and keep up with technology change. And those who write energy rules rarely write code or build things.

Innovators push boundaries, take risks – sometimes ignorant of the rules that exist. This is an important story for those designing systems to remember. Regulators need to embrace this messiness. They should set ambitious high-level outcomes, establish basic rules of the game and clamp down hard on rulebreakers.

Be more kind

It is easy to criticise others and to point out flaws in the other side. To draw up a big clear dividing line and say, “fossil fuel companies are evil” or “governments don’t understand”.

It is harder to pause and consider that fossil fuel companies exist because we buy their products or that politicians respond to public opinion. And so we need to persuade the public first.

I actively try to find ways to turn down the critical voice and consider how to have a more constructive conversation. To remind me, every so often I listen to the song “Be More Kind” by Frank Turner.

To repeat that James Clear quote:

“You can’t expect someone to change their mind if you take away their community too. You have to give them somewhere to go.”

How can we persuade someone to act – to change their story – without kindness? That might mean working together for a common good. Or simply listening harder.

Tom Lowe is an energy policy expert who has worked on innovation and regulation at two British energy suppliers, Ofgem and Consumer Focus. 2022 is his twelfth year working in energy.