Euro elections could shake up climate and energy consensus, warn think-tanks

European Commission appointments following this week’s election of MEPs could threaten the EU consensus on energy and climate change, Brussels experts have warned.

New faces in the executive pose a greater risk to the climate change agenda than representatives elected to the European Parliament, according to environmental think-tank E3G.

Eurosceptic parties like UKIP, many of which are hostile to the prevailing climate change agenda, are expected to win around a quarter of seats. However, E3G said in a briefing note: “Ideological divisions and poor voting records mean more Eurosceptic MEPs are not a huge threat to strong majority support for a progressive climate and energy agenda.”

More significant will be the split of seats between the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) bloc and centre-left Party of European Socialists (S&D). The two blocs are close in the polls, with EPP slightly ahead.

The balance of Parliament will influence the selection of Commission president, who will serve a two and a half year term from December. The frontrunners are Jean-Claude Junker for EPP and Martin Schulz for S&D, but national leaders could put forward other candidates.

Stephen Tindale, associate fellow at the Centre for European Reform, said the “worst case scenario” would be the appointment of pro-coal Polish prime minister Donald Tusk. “That would be total disaster for climate and energy,” he said.

Another candidate who “would not carry a positive climate agenda”, according to E3G, is the French socialist Pascal Lamy.

Also important will be the choice of energy commissioner and the future of the climate change directorate at the Commission. E3G suggested merging climate with energy or environment to increase its influence.