Fracking risks blowing carbon budgets, warns CCC

Hydraulic fracturing risks blowing the UK’s carbon budget unless stricter regulations are introduced, the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) has warned.

If the controversial gas extraction technique is to find widespread use in Britain three tests will need to be met.

First, the development, production and decommissioning of wells must be “tightly regulated and closely monitored” to prevent leaks of methane.

The CCC estimated that under the current regulatory regime methane emissions would be 19 per cent lower than if there was no regulation to control them. The figure does not take account of improvements being introduced by the Environment Agency but it is well short of the 46 per cent reduction which will be needed.

In the US a disproportionately large share of these emissions has come from a small number of wells, where large methane leaks have been left unchecked for a long time. The committee said regular monitoring will be “essential” to catch these so-called ‘super-emitters’.

Second, overall gas consumption must not rise unless the extra gas is used in place of other fossil fuels or in combination with carbon capture and storage.

The CCC said this means domestically produced shale gas will probably have to displace the large and growing volume of imports. The UK currently gets around half of its supplies from abroad and domestic conventional production is projected to decline over the coming decade.

Third, the emissions from shale gas wells themselves will also need to be offset by reductions elsewhere in the UK economy. The volume will depend on the size of the industry, “about which there is considerable uncertainty”, as well as the strictness of the regulatory regime.

Director of the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit Richard Black said: “Shale gas is not automatically a ‘low-carbon’ technology as ministers and some in the business sometimes claim. It can result in a lowering of emissions but that depends on two factors: leakage rates and what it displaces in the energy mix.

“If the government intends to pursue shale gas responsibly it needs to mandate a very tight cap on leakage and penalties for exceeding it, and make clear that shale gas will not displace truly low-carbon forms of energy such as nuclear power and renewables. Otherwise it risks diverting Britain from the carbon reduction path to which the government is committed.”

Last week the government confirmed the fifth carbon budget for 2028 to 2032, accepting the recommendation of the CCC to cut emissions by an average of 57 per cent on 1990 levels. In its annual progress report the CCC said the UK will not be able to continue to rely on the power sector to meet its emissions targets.

The government is due to release a report by the end of this year outlining the policies and measures which will be put in place to meet the agreed budgets. The CCC said it will need to include an examination of the potential impacts of a growing shale gas industry.