Fall in gas output drives grid emissions to record low

A surge in renewable generation pushed the carbon emissions intensity of the UK’s grid to a record low this summer as output from gas-fired power stations dropped by a third, according to a new analysis by Drax.

Emissions from UK power generation fell to 143 grams of CO₂ per kWh (g/kWh), in the third quarter of this year, the latest analysis carried out by Imperial College for Drax Electric Insights shows.

This marks the first time on record that this benchmark for the emissions intensity of UK generation has dropped below 150 g/kWh over an entire quarter.

The last time this quarterly record was broken was three years ago, during the Covid lockdown of early 2020, according to the quarterly snapshot of the grid.

It says the grid’s carbon intensity had stagnated at around 180 g/kWh, following consistent falls during the previous decade, since then.

The drop in emissions intensity between July and September was chiefly driven by a combination of surging renewable generation and a fall in demand.

Renewables supplied more than 40% of Britain’s electricity demand, the highest share from these sources of energy for the third quarter of any year on record, says the analysis.

Wind output rose by one-fifth on the same last year as deployment of offshore capacity has begun to accelerate following a slowdown since 2020. Higher wind speeds pushed offshore wind output up by a third to deliver 9TWh over the quarter.

In addition, roll out of solar has tripled with more panels installed last year than over the previous six combined, according to the analysis.

This surge in the supply of renewable generation is set to continue, according to the Drax analysis, with Britain forecast to install more than 4GW of PV capacity and the first 1.2GW phase of the Dogger Bank offshore wind farm having come online in October.

In addition, electricity demand fell sharply by 5% compared to the equivalent quarter in 2022.

The disappearance of more 1GW of demand was attributed to a combination of mild weather in July and August, which meant little demand for air conditioning, and the continuing impact of high prices on consumers.

The combination of lower demand and increased renewable generation meant that power production from natural gas plants fell by 20TWh, 33% lower than in the same quarter last year, while output from coal plants halved.

The report says increased output from solar power will cut net demand for other generators by 25% within two years during summer months.

As most solar panels are not centrally dispatchable, meaning they export to the grid even when their power is not needed, wholesale power prices will ‘crash’ meaning the substantial negative power prices seen across Europe this summer will be a common feature in the UK too, the report warns.

Dealing effectively with this issue and preventing renewable energy from being wasted, will require greater flexibility in the power system  through building more interconnectors with neighbouring countries and the deployment of larger-volume and longer-duration energy storage, says the analysis.

But the report also warns that this year could mark the turning point in the steady decline seen over the last two decades in demand for electricity, which could start to grow again.

Electrification of heat and road vehicles, which only consumed 1% each of power demand in 2022, is expected to result in electricity demand growing three times faster by 2040 than it did during the 1980s and 1990s.

This increased demand for electricity could mean the new projects coming online may only be enough to maintain the current share of clean electricity, meaning low carbon power sources are required to maintain reduced carbon emissions.

The analysis also shows that coal contributed just 1% of electricity generation in the year to October 2023, half of the level in the previous year.

Iain Staffell of Imperial College London, and lead author of the quarterly Drax Electric Insights report series, said: “This is a milestone moment in the UK’s decarbonisation journey, getting our carbon emissions down by more than two-thirds in just a decade is a real achievement.

“With our renewable capacity continuing to grow, we should see more clean power records broken in the coming years. However, the long-term picture is more complicated, and it is vital that government continues to explore how to unlock investment in clean energy technologies.

“The rise in electric vehicles and heat pumps will push up electricity demand. We need to build more renewables of all types and kick-start negative emissions technologies, to not just keep pace with demand growth, but continue growing the share of clean energy and keep carbon emissions falling.”