Will GB Energy popularity embolden Labour?

If the polls are to be believed – and there is plenty of recent precedence to be wary of them – then come 5 July Labour will form a government with a healthy majority.

As Rishi Sunak was at pains to point out in this week’s head-to-head debate with Kier Starmer, only at this point will we see what Labour is really about.

For all the soundbites and talk of what’s in the party’s “DNA”, Sunak is right, we have very little hard detail on what a Starmer administration will actually do.

What we do know is that energy will be a key policy driver from day one for this hypothetical Labour government.

At its heart stands GB Energy. Those eight letters carry a lot of symbolism, marrying unsubtle patriotism with a pledge to tackle an issue that has had very real world implications for voters across the country. Recent memory of soaring energy prices and the belated acceptance that climate change is a genuine threat to our way of life coalesce into what has become a flagship policy.

An interesting compilation of polling from BMG Group and Copper Consultancy, surveying 1,500 people over the past week, showed 69% in favour of creating GB Energy, with just 8% opposed. Astonishingly, this core Labour policy actually polled better with Conservative voters (75% in favour) than the party’s own faithful (71%).

But what exactly is GB Energy? A green investment bank? An asset owner? An incubator for fledgling technologies? Recent announcements have left us none the wiser, as our analysis this week highlights.

This new body has the potential to turbocharge the energy transition, with the state having proper skin in the game. But, experts have told us it also risks introducing more uncertainty and unhelpful delay while its remit is crystalised.

There is also a wider concern, that of whether a state-owned energy company could actually seed more distrust in the established players in the net-zero journey.

Going back to the BMG polling, compare the zeal for GB Energy to the question about trust in core service providers. It may not be a surprise that utilities performed badly but what is noteworthy is that water companies, despite all the opprobrium shovelled their way of late, actually attract higher trust levels than their counterparts in energy (26% vs 24% with distrust levels at 47% and 49% respectively).

This must be a wake-up call for energy companies, although I would hope they were in no danger of over-sleeping. This poll doesn’t directly address re-nationalisation of energy companies but plenty of others prove it is still a live issue with the electorate. Privatisation of utilities is still treated with suspicion by many voters. Labour appears to have consigned direct action on this issue to the history of the Corbyn era and one would hope GB Energy is as close as the party will get.

However, if 5 July really is Labour Day, I would predict a pretty short honeymoon period for Starmer and Co. Amidst the difficult trade-offs this prospective government would face, if GB Energy maintains its momentum in the public consciousness, could this embolden the administration to push it further?

A pragmatic approach from a new government would be to work closely with the industry to ensure GB Energy complements well-established net-zero pathways, rather than taking an ill-advised detour. But it is up to the sector to make the case for collaboration, not competition, from a future Labour administration.