Heated debate | Hydrogen blame game is strange and unhelpful

Responding to the National Audit Office’s assessment that the heat pump rollout is moving too slowly, Cadent director for strategy Angela Needle takes issue with the watchdog’s conclusion that uncertainty over hydrogen is having an impact. Instead of looking for a scapegoat, Needle calls for an honest discussion to determine what is holding people back from adopting low-carbon heating options.

In the findings of the National Audit Office’s recent report on heat decarbonisation they summarise that the heat pump rollout to replace gas boilers is progressing too slowly. This is not really a surprise.

Heat pumps themselves which are a mature technology in Europe are struggling to win over the UK consumer, and there are multiple reasons why outlined in the report including the high installation and running costs and general lack of consumer awareness.

It only takes a glance at a few heating forums to see that heat pumps have a mixed review with issues like poorly sized installations, installer quality and resulting high heating bills. Consumers of course do their homework when investing such large sums in home heating, so it isn’t surprising that consumers are wary. The cost of the installation being the biggest issue.

Back in 2021 some heat pump companies made ambitious announcements that heat pumps would be the same cost as gas boilers by April 2022 – thus reducing one of the key barriers to the uptake of this technology.

However, even with a generous increase in subsidy from £5,000 to £7,500 – the mean cost of a heat pump according to the Boiler Upgrade scheme statistics is £13,300 – leaving consumers with a £5,800 bill to pay. Gas boilers cost between £2,000 and £3,000. This figure doesn’t include other home improvements and insulation needed to make a heat pump operate effectively. Even the NAO report is rather vague on this issue using a ‘real terms’ cost of a heat pump in 2021 prices of £11,287, rather than the actual price that consumers are paying which is closer to £13,300.

What is most strange about the report is the notion that a future option to heat homes with hydrogen is cited to be slowing down the uptake of heat pumps and a proposal is suggested to bring forward the decision.

The reason being that it is causing uncertainty in the market and with consumers. This seems to be a stretching and anecdotal notion at best and perhaps a deflection tactic to find a scapegoat for lack of performance and pace.

The market direction for heat pumps is clear, the government has set a target of 600,000 installs per year by 2028 (11 times the current level) and provided a generous tax-payers subsidy to support consumer adoption. There could not be a more certain market signal, yet the install rate was only 55,000 installs last year and might increase to an estimated 75,000 this year.

It is more likely the cost and hassle are slowing down deployment. With a third of adults having less than £1,000 of savings, it is hardly surprising.

Most importantly, we do need a range of technologies on offer for those homes that cannot easily have a heat pump. Bringing forward any decision on hydrogen – which presumably means taking it off the table – means a reduction in the options available to heat homes in the future. Various studies have sought to estimate the number of homes where heat pumps will not be an effective solution. An often-quoted 2018 BEIS study put this figure at 10%. With a 2019 report by Element Energy for the CCC finding that 18-37% of UK homes could be considered ‘hard to decarbonise’ due to space constraints, heritage status and other factors. An Energy System Catapult report is widely cited as finding that ‘there is no property type or architectural era that is unsuitable for heat pumps’. This distorts several of the findings of the detailed report including that 12% of homes surveyed were considered ‘technically unfeasible’ for a heat pump installation and that heat pumps were not recommended for 34% of homes due to practical (e.g. space and noise constraint) and technical issues (heating capacity and cost constraint).

Consumers must have a range of realistic options. Heat pumps have their place, but consumers need options that they can afford.  The UK must find a way to transition to net zero that is fair, affordable and realistic.

That will require an honest discussion about what is actually holding people back from adopting the current low-carbon heating options – and what their implementation would mean. At the moment we risk sticking our heads in the sand and pushing on with options that are only meant for the wealthy until it’s too late for the breadth of change that is required to clean up our energy system.