Hydrogen production by 2050 may need to match today’s electricity generation

Hydrogen production may need to match current levels of electricity generation in order to hit the 2050 net zero target, a report by Energy Systems Catapult has found.

The body modelled hundreds of potential pathways to reaching net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 and merged them into two main scenarios – a more centralised “clockwork” scenario, in which there is more nuclear power, and a more decentralised “patchwork” scenario, in which there is more renewables.

In the clockwork scenario, annual hydrogen production would likely need to reach 250TWh to meet demand from industry, heat and heavy transport. At the upper end of its estimated range, hydrogen production would match current levels of electricity generation at around 300TWh.

Meanwhile, the volume of electricity supplied would rise to 524TWh per year, with 30GW of large nuclear power stations providing 230TWh. There would also be 7GW of smaller modular reactors, which the ESC says could potentially meet up three quarter of demand from heat networks.

Windfarms would still meet 40 per cent of electricity demand, with 50GW of capacity supplying 212TWh each year.

However, all of the hydrogen would be produced through either steam methane reformation (216TWh) or biomass gasification (35TWh), in both cases in combination with carbon capture and storage (CCS). The ESC said if this hydrogen was instead produced using electrolysis then annual electricity generation may need to treble between now and 2050.

Hydrogen production would be significantly lower in the patchwork scenario as more households opt to replace their gas boilers with standalone heat pumps instead of a hybrid system. Biomass gasification with CCS would provide 65TWh annually and electrolysis 110TWh.

Annual electricity demand would more than double to around 700TWh as renewable capacity rose to 190GW. More than half – 370TWh – would be met by 90GW of wind capacity, whilst 80GW of solar would provide another 73TWh.

ESC insight and evidence lead Scott Milne said: “Last year the UK became the first major economy in the world to commit to a net zero emissions target by 2050.

“Now for the first time, we’ve modelled hundreds of potential pathways to get to net xero by 2050 – ramping up or down different technologies and behaviour changes to understand the different combinations, interactions and trade-offs of competing decarbonisation options to reach the most cost-optimised approaches.

“Broadly each potential pathway uses a combination of two different approaches: a top-down technology focused approach or a bottom-up behaviour focused approach.

“However, what stands out is – no matter which pathway the UK takes – innovation, investment and incentives across low carbon technology, land use and lifestyle is essential to achieve net zero. And there are massive economic opportunities for the UK to lead the world in these areas.”

The report covered research by the ESC which suggested consumers are willing to adopt low-carbon technologies if they can continue living their lives as normal. However, there was resistance the dietary changes and limits on flying that would be necessary to meet net zero without carbon offsetting.

With this in mind, the ESC said up to 170 million tonnes of biomass emissions would need to be captured and stored each year to offset these “lifestyle emissions” along with those from industry.

Speaking to Utility Week, Milne said consumer behaviour will be the “absolute pillar” of the ongoing work to understand how to make low-carbon solutions desirable.

“We have conducted a survey of around 2000 members of the public to try and understand the level of understanding towards different low-carbon solutions that allow them to still have the experiences they want.

“Understanding people’s willingness to undertake those behaviour changes really is key.”