Johnson’s departure marks crossroads for net zero

Sympathy is currently in extremely short supply for Boris Johnson.

The grudging tone of the prime minister’s resignation speech on No 10 Downing Street’s doorstep at lunchtime will have left few in much doubt that he was dragged kicking and screaming to quit the top job in British politics.

However, those concerned about climate may be justified to feel nervous about the latest revolution of Downing Street’s famous black door.

While Johnson has justifiably attracted criticism over the way he has run his administration, he has thrown his weight behind the government’s efforts to cut emissions.

It was his predecessor Theresa May, who introduced the 2050 net zero emissions target during the dying days of her own premiership nearly three years ago. However, Johnson’s administration has put a lot more flesh on the bones of addressing this headline target.

The PM made a so-called ‘10-point plan for a green industrial revolution’ a centrepiece of his government’s efforts to help the UK economy recover from the pandemic. Then the Net Zero Strategy, published in the run up to the UK-hosted COP 26 climate summit, was the first pan-government effort to tackle rising emissions.

And this year, as worries about soaring bills intensified in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, has seen the publication of the first piece of bespoke energy legislation in nearly a decade.

The Conservative leadership election, which has been kickstarted by today’s announcement, raises the possibility that this momentum on climate change policy could be derailed though.

The past year has seen the government’s drive to cut emissions to net zero by 2050 become a flashpoint amongst Conservative backbench MPs, who will have a powerful role in determining the identity of the new prime minister.

One of the first leadership candidates to declare their interest is Steve Baker, the ringleader of the Net Zero Scrutiny Group, which adopts a sceptical tone on many of the government’s policies for tackling climate change.

The rising cost of energy has intensified this debate amongst his fellow MPs, which means that the net zero drive is likely to loom larger in this year’s leadership contest than it has previously, putting pressure on candidates to water down their commitment to the 2050 target.

Equally though, Johnson’s record on climate change issues has been patchy. The flagship Green Homes Grant energy efficiency scheme proved to be an embarrassing flop, which delivered a handful of the upgrades promised when it was launched.

And concern has been growing recently, voiced most powerfully by the Climate Change Committee last month, about a gap between the government’s climate-friendly rhetoric and the nitty gritty of the policies for delivering it.

The Conservatives’ next choice as leader is likely to cut a more sober figure than Johnson as the party seeks to project greater competence following the chaos which has marked the latter stages of the brief Johnson era.

A less slapdash approach to governing could bring benefits in terms of delivering net zero but only if the steer from the top remains strong.