Meeting the scale of the challenge: system planning for net zero

Roddy Wilson, network planning and investment manager, SSEN Transmission, outlines some of the findings from the company’s new Future Energy Scenarios for the north of Scotland, which is expected to become a major exporter of renewable power to the rest of the country.

We’re proud of the role we are playing in the UK and Scotland’s decarbonisation goals, as a facilitator for renewables deployment and as an enabler for greater electrification in society. We’re building a network for net zero whilst also reducing our own carbon emissions as a business.

We’re proud to be the first networks operator to receive external accreditation from the SBTi for a science-based target in line with a 1.5°C global warming pathway, and we’re even prouder to pledge our commitment to the United Nation’s Race to Zero initiative. By joining a global movement of leading companies, we’re aligning our business with the most ambitious aim of the Paris agreement.

With COP26 just around the corner, which we are delighted to be one of the leading energy sponsors of as part of the SSE Group, the scale of the challenge is clear. Many commentators have highlighted the scale of strategic transmission investment that is required to deliver mass decarbonisation at scale and pace for a zero-carbon electricity system and national economy.

Our track record and RIIO-T2 business plan demonstrate our commitment to planning and building a network for net zero. As we look ahead, we anticipate ScotWind projects, greater electrification of heat and transport, and wider technology participation within the energy system supported by Government subsidy reforms will all have a profound effect on our network. It’s our job to ensure that strategic grid investment takes place at the right time and place to support this ambition.

Building on National Grid ESO’s Future Energy Scenarios for GB, we’ve published our North of Scotland Future Energy Scenarios paper, setting out our view of a range of potential generation and demand scenarios in our network area from now out to 2050, taking a “whole system” approach. Our detailed scenarios, developed from our understanding of local stakeholder and energy users’ needs, provide deep insight to potential generation and demand in the north of Scotland, complementing the ESO’s national macro-analysis.

So, with the pathway to net zero in mind, what do these scenarios tell us? Of our three scenarios explored in the document, two would lead us on the right pathway to net zero. From this we can see that:

• By 2050, the north of Scotland will need 33-35GW of clean, green renewable capacity to support net zero delivery. For context, we currently have just over 6GW of renewable generation connected in the north of Scotland.
• Based on 2019 figures, electricity demand is expected to increase up to 71% by 2050 as electrification of transport and heat grows to support net zero targets.
• Around 700,000 electric vehicles will be required on our roads by 2050 to decarbonise our travel; nearly 200-times more than today.

It is clear that strategic investment in the north of Scotland transmission infrastructure is unequivocally needed – and needed today if national net zero targets are to be met. The north of Scotland is already a net exporter of clean, green energy and has huge potential to grow this export over the coming decades.

As we further develop and refine this work, feedback from our customers and wider stakeholders will be vital to ensure that we understand and overcome all barriers to net zero delivery in the north of Scotland. Getting the policy and the regulatory framework right will be critical for this, such as review and reform of the TNUoS charging regime and ensuring that timely, coordinated decision making from both a consenting and regulatory perspective takes place. We welcome views on these topics, as well as our current research areas: hydrogen technologies and the electrification of rail.

The scale of the challenge is clear, and so is our focus, as we work to deliver a network for net zero.

You can read the full paper here.