‘Muted’ energy build rate increases decarbonisation challenge

The UK “urgently need[s] to accelerate delivery of almost all elements of the future energy system” to meet its decarbonisation targets.

That is according to AtkinsRealis which warns that the UK’s current energy build rate is “significantly lower” than the rate required to achieve the government’s target of a net zero electricity system in 2035.

In 2023, the UK connected 4.5GW of renewable energy to the grid. However, the report warns that this “falls short […] of what is required”.

“Muted progress” means that in the space of four years, the required build rate to hit the 2035 target has increased by 344% and now stands at 15.5GW/year (compared to 10.5GW/year forecast in 2019).

The analysis is based on a need to deliver 187GW of new generating capacity by 2035, for a total energy system of 260GW. This is to balance supply and demand of an increasingly electrified economy, as laid out in the government’s most recent net zero scenarios.

It adds that as the UK is unlikely to triple its build rate in one year to the required 15.5GW, the “scale of the challenge becomes greater […] each year”.

The report warns that “the slower we ramp up the build rate now, the greater the challenge to meet ‘peak output’ in the future”.

It adds that if the UK achieves a 15% increase in build rate year-on-year, the peak build rate would be 25GW/year by 2035 (roughly five times the 2022 rate and four times the UK’s current highest recorded build rate of 6.5GW in 2017).

However, if the build rate increases by just 10%, the required peak build rate would jump to 40GW/year by 2035, which the report warns would provide an “unprecedent challenge”.

Sarah Long, market director for net zero energy at AtkinsRéalis, said: “From reforming the planning system and strengthening energy networks to bolstering the UK’s supply chain, a more gradual increase in new energy capacity is the most likely path to meeting net zero energy goals over the next decade. However, the scale of the challenge becomes greater each year: we must urgently shift from scenarios into delivery.

“The UK must maintain a laser-like focus on deployment and delivery of net zero generation and the energy infrastructure required to support it.

“That includes initiatives such as the Civil Nuclear Roadmap announced last week that lays out interim targets against long-term goals, encompasses support for new technology as well as proven large-scale projects and is an example of the type of framework that will help to provide long-term certainty to investors and boost the build rate.”