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National Grid is “inching closer” to its 2025 goal to run the entire power system without fossil fuels, according to analysis from Imperial College London for Drax Electric Insights.
The conclusion comes after Britain broke the record for “greening its grid” after producing 100% clean electricity for 25 hours in December, the longest period on record.
The Drax Electric Insights report adds that the minimum safe amount of fossil fuels we need in the UK is continuously falling. It adds that on 29 December 2022 this minimum fell to its lowest ever level of 1.6GW.
The report adds: “Up until a year ago, this had never fallen below 2.4GW. National Grid is inching closer to its 2025 goal of running the entire power system with zero fossil fuels at times when there is enough renewables output.”
However, the report warns that progress may be thwarted with “the cost of building new renewables […] likely to rise in the coming year though”.
It adds: “Financing costs are increasing as the Bank of England hiked interest rates for the tenth time to 4%. Borrowing costs for renewable developers have approximately quadrupled since 2019. Most of the cost of wind and solar farms is upfront capital – so, just like with a home mortgage, the borrowing rate has a defining impact on the lifetime cost of renewables.”
Britain’s renewables also helped to stem the impact of high gas prices during 2022, the report concludes. Wind, solar, biomass and hydropower collectively generated 40% of the country’s electricity over the year.
Offshore wind has been the major driver of this growth, with production more than doubling over the last five years. However, the analysis adds that Solar PV could also rebound strongly from its recent slump, potentially adding 2-4GW of new capacity in 2023.
Iain Staffell of Imperial College London, and lead author of the quarterly Drax Electric Insights report, said: “Britain’s power grid has undergone a remarkable transformation over the last decade with surplus clean electricity having switched from being a pipe dream to becoming a reality.”
He added: “Completely eliminating fossil fuels during periods of high renewable output and low demand in the next two years requires significant policy and infrastructure decisions to be made now. Having a new Department for Energy Security and Net Zero is a positive step to focus government attention on this.”
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