National Grid says ‘immediate action’ needed to meet net zero target

National Grid Electricity System Operator (ESO) has called for “immediate action” to put the UK on the course to net zero emissions by 2050, saying the target is achievable but requires a “fundamental shift” in the economics of energy as well as wider engagement across society.

The ESO made the comments in the latest version of its annual Future Energy Scenarios, which this time focuses on the societal impacts of different paths to net zero.

The four scenarios

Only one of the four scenarios explored in the report – Steady Progression – fails to meet the target by 2050. Between the remaining three, one of the key differences is the approach to household heating and resulting the impact on peoples’ lifestyles.

In Leading the Way, air-source heat pumps become the most the common form of heating but hybrid systems incorporating hydrogen boilers are also installed in a significant proportion of homes. The ESO said this trajectory would achieve net zero emissions the soonest but would also require the greatest degree of lifestyle change.

Hybrid systems also account for significant proportion of heating in the Consumer Transformation scenario, although much less so, with heat pumps taking an outright majority in the technology mix. Although the ESO described energy efficiency improvements as a “no regrets option” across the board, homes would need to be particularly well insulated in this scenario.

Of the three scenarios aligned with the 2050 target, System Transformation would have the smallest impact on peoples’ lifestyles, with standalone hydrogen boilers accounting for around two thirds of all heating systems.

Household heating technologies

This scenario would have by far the highest dependence on hydrogen, which would meet 59 per cent of final energy needs. The vast majority of this would need to be ‘blue hydrogen’ produced using by reforming methane and capturing the resulting carbon dioxide emissions.

By contrast, ‘green hydrogen’ produced using electrolysis and surplus renewable power would account for a majority of hydrogen in both of the other two net zero scenarios, although the overall amount supplied would be much less.

Annual hydrogen production

Even in a highly electrified world, the ESO said hydrogen will play an “important and complementary” role by providing energy storage for surplus renewable power at seasonal scales. At least 190TWh of energy would be required for hydrogen production in all three of the net zero scenarios.

Hydrogen use cases

The ESO said the net zero scenarios would all likewise require carbon capture and storage (CCS) to some degree, whether to produce low-carbon fuels, decarbonise industry or generation negative emissions in combination with bioenergy.

It listed this as one of the four key messages from the report:

• Reaching net zero carbon emissions by 2050 is achievable. However, this requires immediate action across all key technologies and policy areas, and full engagement across society and end consumers.
• Hydrogen and carbon capture and storage must be deployed for net zero. Industrial scale demonstration projects need to be operational this decade.
• The economics of energy supply and demand fundamentally shift in a net zero world. Markets must evolve to provide incentives for investment in flexibility and zero carbon generation.
• Open data and digitalisation underpin the whole system thinking required to achieve net zero. This is key to navigating increasing complexity at lowest cost for consumers.

The three net zero scenarios all foresee significant increases in generation capacity, with wind and solar representing a sizeable majority. Only two see any long-term growth in nuclear capacity. In System Transformation this is mainly large centralised power stations, whilst in Consumer Transformation there is a wider rollout of small modular reactors.

Installed generation capacity

ESO head of strategy Mark Herring: “Across all scenarios, we see growth in renewable energy generation, including significant expansion in installed offshore wind capacity. There is widespread uptake in domestic electric vehicles, and growth and investment in hydrogen and carbon capture technologies too.

“Our new analysis of the level of societal change needed to achieve net zero also shows that consumers need greater understanding of how their energy use impacts the wider system, and how changes to their lifestyle have an impact on net zero ambitions.”

He continued: “While Covid-19 came too late to be factored into this year’s analysis many of the areas highlighted will be crucial in a green recovery from the pandemic, particularly improving energy efficiency across all sectors and significant investment in low carbon electricity generation.

“There is already significant progress being made towards net zero, including ESO planning to operate a zero-carbon electricity system by 2025, but the fundamental changes outlined make it more important than ever to have a coordinated approach to decarbonizing the whole energy sector.”