National Grid’s winter wishlist

Nothing marks the change of season quite like the rolling back of clocks and National Grid’s annual winter outlook report.

The energy industry has especially anticipated this year’s tome of forecasts and modelling given the flurry of capacity issues that have dogged the UK’s fleet of generating assets over the summer.

And now National Grid’s planned steps have emerged, so have the repeated assurances that they probably won’t be needed. Securing capacity totalling more than 3GW to sit on the bench and paying companies to cut their use are “sensible precautions”, we’re reminded (more on p4).

That might well be true. The UK’s security of supply still falls well within government’s definition of “secure”. But in a winter of unexpectedly tight margins, before a general election, it is not the time for complacency (if there ever is one).

So as the UK’s regulators prepare for the worst and hope for the best, the Utility Week news team mulled what might appear on National Grid’s winter wishlist:

1.    Kind weather: This year, we imagine National Grid will be keeping its fingers crossed for weather that is mild enough to cap demand and windy enough to keep renewable generation high.

2.    Timely capacity returns: November could prove a make or break month for the Grid’s plans. SSE has confirmed the return of one of the two Ferrybridge units to service by November, while EDF has promised that a unit at Heysham and one at Hartlepool will also return at the beginning of next month.

3.    An end to unexpected disasters: The UK has seen an unprecedented number of unexpected outages this year, including three fires at thermal generation plants. Surely further catastrophes are less likely given how many there have already been?

4.    Fewer Russia-Ukraine headlines: The plan for what might happen if Russian gas supplies to Europe are constrained? Rely on the LNG market, says National Grid (see p28). For now, it seems supply disruption is unlikely. Which is just as well for UK consumers, who’d foot the bill for expensive LNG deliveries.

5.    Similar security for the rest of Europe: With electricity imports currently standing at around 7 per cent, Europe’s security of supply matters to the UK too.

If the rigour and caution of National Grid’s winter preparation are not enough of an assurance, the words of energy secretary Ed Davey are perhaps more consoling: “There will be no blackouts. Period.”