NIC calls for 65% renewables generation by 2030

The UK could secure two thirds of its electricity needs from renewable energy sources by 2030 at no extra cost to meeting half of total demand.

This is according to the National Infrastructure Commission (NIC), which has increased its recommended 2030 target for deployment of renewables from 50 per cent of total electricity demand to 65 per cent.

In a new report, published today (11 August), citing analysis commissioned from Aurora Energy Research, the NIC concludes that this increased target for deployment of renewables would not increase consumers’ energy bills.

According to Aurora’s analysis, there is “no material change” in costs over the next decade for annual average electricity system costs whether a 2030 target of 50 per cent or 65 per cent renewables is adopted. It says plunging costs of solar and wind power during recent years have helped to ensure that the target for renewables can be increased without hitting consumers in the pocket, but the analysis does not assume that these drops will continue.

Achieving the 65 per cent target would require 86 to 99GW deployment of fresh renewables. This would include 40GW of offshore wind -which the government has already pledged by the end of the current decade – 14 to 18GW of onshore wind and 29 to 38GW of solar.

The analysis took into account system costs, including the provision of back-up, balancing and curtailment.

Deploying both mass wind and solar in the generation mix can help to balance supply and demand, says the report, because they rely on different weather patterns, which can complement one another throughout the day and across the year.

But the NIC, which has previously stated that no more than one new nuclear power station would be required before 2025 in order to meet its previous 50 per cent renewable target, says it would be “prudent” to keep other generation options on the table even if 65 per cent can be achieved.

To help meet its increased target, the commission recommends that the government should set out a pipeline of annual contracts for difference auctions with estimated budgets for offshore wind, onshore wind and solar.

It also concludes that its recommended increased rate of renewables deployment is “feasible” based on the UK’s sizeable pipeline of projects and previous record in rolling out such projects.

The report says there are 32GW of offshore wind, 12GW of onshore wind and 9GW of solar PV in the pipeline and that historical peak rates of deployment for each technology are near or above what is needed each year to 2030.

It also points out that renewable project construction times are shorter than some other large infrastructure assets, ranging from eight years for offshore wind farms to just one for solar.

The analysis does not factor in potential contributions to power supply from hydrogen and carbon, capture and storage (CCS) plants and assumes that unabated biomass will play no role on the generation system by 2030.

NIC chair Sir John Armitt said: “These latest projections suggest we can afford to go further, faster without hitting consumers in the pocket.

“The National Infrastructure Strategy (NIS) needs to include a long-term policy on future energy that reflects these facts and helps deliver the green recovery we all want to see.”

The new analysis has been drawn up as the Treasury prepares to publish this autumn its much delayed NIS, which is based on the National Infrastructure Assessment submitted to ministers more than two years ago by the NIC. In a recent interview with Utility Week, Armitt said recent comments from government had left him “reasonably optimistic that it’s going to happen” in autumn.