‘No way’ UK can hit 50GW offshore wind target, developers warn

The government’s target of 50GW of offshore wind by 2030 can no longer be achieved but is still feasible before the middle of the next decade, industry experts have said.

Senior figures at the likes of RWE, Siemens Energy, and EnBW have all poured cold water on the prospect of the UK hitting its target.

The 2030 50GW target was announced in 2022’s British Energy Security Strategy. Since then, however, there has been a number of setbacks including last year’s Contracts for Difference auction which attracted no bids from offshore wind developers.

Speaking at Aurora Energy Research’s annual renewables conference, RWE director of offshore wind development Danielle Lane said: “There’s a general recognition that we’re not going to be hitting 50GW in the next five years even with the best wind behind us.”

Rather than be bogged down by this target, Lane added that the industry – and government – should be focussing on getting projects that are “ready to go” onto the grid and operating in the next five years, she said.

Damien Zachlod, managing director of EnBW’s UK arm, added: “There’s no way we make 50 by 30.”

However, Andrew Elmes, head of business development (net zero) at Siemens Energy, said the 2030 50GW target could only be achieved if the UK “puts its mind to it” by adopting the kind of vaccine task force approach as advocated by shadow energy secretary Ed Miliband last week.

“We’re not going to do it on a business-as-usual basis,” he added.

But Elmes said 45GW is feasible by 2030 and that 50GW could be reached by the 2032 or 2033 if four large offshore wind projects come online per annum, which has been achieved in the past.

He pointed out that 15GW of offshore wind has already been delivered and another 21GW is in the development pipeline.

Zachlod agreed that 50GW could be achieved in the “first half” of the 2030s.

Lane suggested that delivery of the UK’s offshore wind roll out could be accelerated by revising the structure of the CfD (Contracts for Difference), such as reducing the “fierce” price competition that characterises the auction process.

She said: “We need to consider what we’re trying to get now from CfD beyond the original concept of price stabilisation and low cost of capital.”

Zachlod added that as many offshore projects as possible should be awarded a contract in the upcoming AR (allocation round) 6 because it is the “last opportunity” to do so for schemes which can be delivered by 2030.

But while the CfDs have proved good at helping to drive down the cost of offshore wind projects, the inherently competitive nature of the process inhibits potentially viable projects coming forward, he said: “The CfD makes sure there’s a loser because an auction doesn’t work if there’s not a loser and that loser is delayed in their deployment.”

As reported by Utility Week, former energy minister Chris Skidmore and Renewable UK chief executive Dan McGrail called for a rethink of delivering offshore wind. In particular, a co-authored report by the pair calls for an alternative mechanism to the CfD auctions to be explored.