Polls show support for rapid net-zero journey, but confusion on the best path

Two sets of newly published research have reiterated public support to move forward the net-zero target as well as their faith in renewables. But, the details of these surveys show a more nuanced picture and shed more light on attitudes towards specific measures of decarbonisation.

The latest statistics from the department for business, energy and industrial strategy (BEIS) show that, as of September, there remains a curmudgeonly rump of just 2 per cent of the public steadfastly opposed to renewable energy. This is the lowest level of opposition since the public attitude tracker began in 2012 – when it stood at five per cent – and compares to 84 per cent in favour of green energy – up from 80 per cent last year.

The BEIS figures were published on the same day that a YouGov poll found 56 per cent support reaching net-zero emissions before 2030. The poll, commissioned by Green New Deal UK, shows 8 per cent support hitting the target by 2050 or later, with the same proportion for 2045.

The figures have been seized on by the Labour party, which insists it shows the strength of public support for its 2030 net-zero target (which has been backed by party members but not explicitly by the leadership).

Labour points to the breakdown of the results by voting history, which shows 47 per cent of Conservative voters back the 2030 target, compared with 16 per cent supporting the government’s own policy of hitting net-zero by 2050. Similarly, only 16 per cent of Liberal Democrat voters (based on 2017’s election choices) agree with the party’s preferred net-zero year of 2045, as opposed to 73 per cent urging for pre-2030.

What Labour, unsurprisingly, left out of its number-crunching is evidence that even its most ambitious of plans don’t go far enough for many people, including its own supporters.

While 24 per cent of the public (and 27 per cent of Labour supporters) chose the option of decarbonisation by 2030, 32 per cent (39 per cent for Labourites) opted for the earliest choice of 2025 “or sooner”.

While the political point scoring can be quibbled with, the comment by Aliya Yule, co-founder of Labour for a Green New Deal, that “all the polling points to it: this is a climate election” does seem to ring true.

So, what do the details of the BEIS tracker show us about public attitudes towards specific paths to decarbonisation?

While support for renewables has had a sizeable boost over the past 12 months, compared to the original tracker in 2012 public sentiment has shifted just five percentage points – not insignificant but given the global conversation during that time perhaps surprising. Furthermore, the uplift is largely down to increasingly favourable attitudes to biomass, up to an all-time high of 70 per cent in September.

All other forms of renewable energy had less public support in September than they did six months ago, according to the tracker, albeit none of the falls were dramatic:

• 85 per cent supported solar energy in September – down from 89 per cent in March
• 81 per cent were in favour of offshore wind in September – compared to 83 per cent six months earlier
• 80 per cent gave their support to wave and tidal in this time around – down from 82 per cent
• Support for onshore wind remained stable at 78 per cent for this poll – compared to 79 per cent

While all of the key renewables have seen levels of support rise since the tracker began is it a worry that given the incredibly high profile of the climate agenda over the past few months there has not been a great swell in enthusiasm for particular green energy solutions?

Similarly, the tracker shows that the government’s strategy of pursuing “clean growth” has not particularly registered with the public. Only 21 per cent are aware of the concept, with only one per cent claiming to know a lot about it.

When it comes to energy efficiency, knowledge around energy performance certificates (EPCs) also remains relatively low, with only 58 per cent of the public having any knowledge of them.

In terms of efforts to insulate homes, double glazing remains the most popular measure, taken up by 74 per cent of those surveyed, followed by loft insulation (62 per cent) and cavity wall insultation (43 per cent). These figures are in line with the attitudes displayed last September. There has been less take-up for under floor insulation at 17 per cent – however this has roughly doubled since the tracker began.

For those who had not taken up the insulation measures, the most common reason given was that they did not own the property, while the second most common was that it was not appropriate for the property.

However, between 8 per cent and 14 per cent (depending on the insulation measure) said it was not a priority for them, while 7 per cent to 13 per cent said insulation measures were too expensive.

While the next five weeks is likely to be a reminder of how malleable statistics can be, depending on whose point of view they are being twisted to, there does seem to be a message within these latest polls. Green policies are at the height of fashion and there seems to be a genuine desire from the public for the net-zero journey to be hastened. However, this does not seem to be matched with greater education or interest in the methods to achieve that aim.

It is yet another sign that the debate on net-zero needs to turn from ‘when’ to ‘how’.