Renewable curtailment may reach 30GW by 2030

By 2030 up to 30GW of wind and solar generation may need to be curtailed on some days, new analysis from LCP has suggested.

The figure was reached by modelling the energy system described in the “Two Degrees” version of National Grid future energy scenarios, which aligns with the government’s new net-zero target.

Analysts simulated its performance using historical weather data for periods that would likely strain the system. They repeated the simulation a number of times to capture events that had a low probability of occurring – a process known as stochastic analysis.

The 30GW number represents the largest potential surpluses of low-carbon generation over demand identified in the simulations. In these instances, typically occurring during the summer when demand is low, Britain’s nuclear plants would remain on due to their inherent inflexibility but all other thermal generation would be switched off.

Curtailment requirements

Some of these excesses could be absorbed by demand-side response and interconnectors, although there might be limited demand for exports if neighbouring countries are experiencing the same weather patterns.

LCP said periods like this present a “big opportunity” for long-duration storage technologies that are able to take advantage of the “free lunch”.

Despite continued forecasting improvements, the consultancy expects imbalance volumes in the balancing mechanism to rise by between 50 and 100 per cent.

Imbalance volumes

Note: Assumes 20 per cent improvement in forecasting accuracy

“With much more of the market being driven by weather conditions we see revenue moving away from the longer-term wholesale market with a much greater emphasis on the intraday, balancing and ancillary services markets”, its report explained.

Up to 8GW of flexible plant is likely to be needed to raise or lower output in the most extreme cases “meaning there is likely to be significant value in the balancing market in the future”.

By contrast, LCP said the frequency response market has “limited potential for growth in the near term”. The amount the electricity system operator is required to hold at any one time may be revised in light of August’s blackout, but will ultimately be capped by the largest potential in-feed loss, which is set to become either of the reactors at Hinkley Point C.

Its modelling also indicated ramping requirements would increase by 2030, but only “modestly” as the wide geographical spread of the UK’s wind fleet would mean changes driven by weather would arrive over several hours.

Ramping requirements