Scarsella: Blackouts ‘very unlikely’ this winter

The boss of UK Power Networks (UKPN) has dismissed the possibility of blackouts this winter as “very, very unlikely” despite concerns over the security of supply amidst the ongoing energy crisis.

Speaking during a panel discussion on the second day of Utility Week Forum on Wednesday (9 November), Basil Scarsella was asked for his thoughts on the risk of power cuts.

In his response, he said: “In my view that is possible but it is very, very unlikely. Of course, it depends on a number of factors and these days electricity is generated from gas, coal, wind, sun… Obviously the sun doesn’t always shine, the wind doesn’t always blow. Gas traditionally has been a reliable supply but we have seen what is happening in Ukraine and Russia and therefore there is a question mark on the supply of gas.

“Like I say, very, very unlikely that we will see rotational disconnections.”

His thoughts were echoed by Eon Energy chief executive Michael Lewis who said that while blackouts are possible, there are a number of factors which would have to align.

He said: “The key determinant is if we have an extremely cold period coupled with low wind, coupled with problems with nuclear generators in France for instance. It will require a number of events to come together. The system operator is well on top of all of this. So it is possible, yes, but not likely.”

Lewis said it is important to consider not just physical security of supply, but also economic security of supply – whether people can actually afford their energy.

He explained: “I would say there is another mechanism for blackouts and they are individual blackouts. People disconnect themselves. They don’t charge their meters. This is prepayment customers predominantly. That is a real risk.

“£2,500 bills, that’s still a very significant increase on the £1,000 to £1,200 average pre-crisis. Now, of course, there is government support in place at the moment for people on Universal Credit and the £400 for all customers, that will expire next year and we don’t know what will come after that.

“So there is a real challenge around individual customers, under severe economic pressure, self-disconnecting and I think that is the most serious problem we face at the moment and of course a corollary of that is people getting into enormous problems with debt.”

Lewis further warned that if the government does not target support effectively enough from next April when the Energy Price Guarantee will come to an end there could be “real challenges” for both domestic and business customers.

Also joining the panel was Noyona Chundur, chief executive of the Consumer Council of Northern Ireland, who agreed that the ability to afford bills is now the core element of security of supply for consumers. She explained how more than 56% of consumers in Northern Ireland are on prepayment meters.

She said: “A lot of consumers are on it, because it’s useful in terms of budgeting. But now with the cost of living and energy crisis, what that means is…the higher rates of disconnection or self-disconnection and the resulting fuel poverty that can come from that. So affordability and security of supply is the number one priority in as far as consumers are concerned.”