Scotland’s stretching climate goals ‘no longer credible’

The Scottish Government is “failing to achieve” its ambitious climate goals and the acceleration required to meet its 2030 emissions reduction target is “beyond [what is] credible”, according to a new Climate Change Committee (CCC) report.

In its latest progress report on Scotland’s progress on meeting its carbon reduction plans, the statutory climate advisor airs concerns about achieving the “stretching” emissions reduction targets introduced by Holyrood in 2019 legislation.

Under these targets, the Scottish Government committed to cut emissions to 75% of 1990 levels by 2030 and reach net zero by 2045, five years ahead of the UK as a whole.

However, the CCC says annual Scottish emissions targets have repeatedly been missed.

Scottish emissions in 2021 increased by 2.4% from 2020 as the economy rebounded from the pandemic, making it the eighth time in the past 12 years that the annual legal target has been missed.

In addition, Scotland’s draft Climate Change Plan, which was due to be published last year, has been delayed and it is still unclear when it will appear.

As a result, the report says there is “still no comprehensive delivery strategy for meeting future emissions targets and actions continue to fall far short of what is legally required”.

“The acceleration required in emissions reduction to meet the 2030 target is now beyond what is credible,” says the report.

The recent rate of emissions reduction outside the electricity supply, aviation and shipping sectors must increase by a factor of nine from 2021 to 2030, compared to the preceding nine years, if Scotland is to achieve its 2030 target, it says: “Given the pace at which supply chains and investment would need to develop, this rate of reduction is not credible.”

In the buildings sector, the rate of emissions reduction will need to increase by nearly a factor of ten between 2021 to 2030 compared to that seen in the preceding nine years, which the CCC describes as “not a credible increase”.

The CCC says that to meet the Scottish Government’s targets, heat pump deployments will have to increase from the current level of 6,000 per annum to 80,000.

There are “some early signs” of good progress, including bold proposals in the Scottish Government’s Heat in Buildings consultation, such as the mooted prohibition on the use of direct emissions heating systems for new homes.

But once agreed, these must be delivered promptly and effectively to ensure Scotland can get as close as possible to meeting its targets.

Professor Piers Forster, interim chair of the CCC, said: “Scotland has laudable ambitions to decarbonise, but it isn’t enough to set a target; the Government must act. There are risks in all reviewed areas, including those with significant policy powers devolved to the Scottish government.

“Scotland’s Climate Change Plan needs to be published urgently, so we can assess it. We need to see actions that will deliver on its future targets.”