SSEN forecasts 1,300% increase in heat pumps by 2030

Scottish and Southern Electricity Networks (SSEN) Distribution is forecasting almost 700,000 heat pumps in households across its networks, an increase of nearly 1,300%, by 2030.

The distribution network operator’s (DNO) latest annual Distribution Future Energy Scenarios (DFES) reports, undertaken by Regen, show “unprecedented growth in low carbon and digital technologies” which it says demands “exponential growth in networks” to support the transition to net zero.

The key findings of this year’s reports are that by 2030 SSEN’s networks in northern Scotland and central southern England must be ready for almost 2 million electric vehicles (EVs), a more than 1,900% increase from the less than 100,000 today.

It further forecast that electricity demand through hydrogen electrolysis will increase from 2MW in both licence areas to a total of 242MW, while battery storage is forecast to increase by “well over” 2,000% compared to existing connections.

The DNO said its regions have “distinct net zero opportunities”, with its licence area in England having “some of the best solar irradiance in the UK”, with solar generation predicted to almost triple by 2030. Additionally 19MW of hydrogen-fuelled generation is modelled to connect by 2030.

Meanwhile its Scottish region has seen a 57% increase in EVs over the past year, which means approximately 1% of all cars on northern Scotland’s roads are now powered by batteries.

“With some of the best wind speeds in the UK and 2.1GW of onshore wind already connected, the foundations are laid for the anticipated trebling of renewable generation by 2030, spread across wind, solar, hydro and marine capacity,” the company said.

It added that 22MW of hydrogen generation is forecast to connect by 2030, while battery storage is projected to increase from 8MW to 1.9GW.

In a foreword to the reports Andrew Roper, distribution systems operations director at SSEN, said: “Our business plan for the current regulatory price control period, which started in April 2023, draws on these DFES figures to establish the building blocks that must be put in place to facilitate net zero by 2050.

“We will invest at least £3.5 billion in our network, which means by 2028 we will be able to facilitate 1.3 million electric vehicles and 800,000 heat pumps on our network, as well as 8GW of distributed generation and storage.

“This will be supported by development of new market models to allow consumers to interact with the energy system and manage their own usage and costs. We are also working to empower local communities and propose mechanisms to enable strategic investment in our network.”

Tamsyn Lonsdale-Smith, senior energy analyst at Regen, said: “The DFES are a keystone piece of analysis looking at the uptake of both demand-side technologies, such as EV chargers and heat pumps, and large-scale generation and storage projects.

“Due to an increase in project developer activity in the past year, we’ve seen a significant growth in the number of new projects seeking to connect to the distribution network since the 2021 DFES were completed. This includes significant solar PV projects in southern England, onshore wind projects in the north of Scotland and a larger-than-ever pipeline of prospective battery projects across both licence areas.”