Stark calls for contingency plans to hit carbon targets

The UK government must build in buffers for meeting its emissions reduction targets because of the “high” risks of under delivery on existing plans, the Climate Change Committee (CCC) chief executive has warned.

Cross-examined by the House of Commons environmental audit committee on Wednesday (19 July) about the climate change watchdog’s most recent annual progress report, Chris Stark said there is a “high degree of delivery risk” for more than half of the government’s carbon reduction plans.

In the progress report, which was published last month, the CCC said it has “slightly increased” confidence that the UK will meet its next Fourth Carbon Budget, which runs from now until 2027.

However, the advisory body’s confidence the UK will meet longer term emissions reduction target has decreased since the last progress report in 2022.

Noting that the high degree of delivery risk is “enormously difficult”, Stark said: “We increasingly think the government will need to aim for more than the legal target, knowing that they may underdeliver on the plans they have. It may mean alternative options in areas where government has been reluctant to act.

“It probably means that we need a strategy that goes further than the targets so we build in that contingency,” he said, adding that the government’s strategy for achieving net zero relies on “technological developments” rather than changes in demand and consumption, such as encouraging less driving.

Stark said that the CCC will be carrying out an assessment of potential contingency plans for cutting emissions.