Study puts renewables mix at heart of extreme weather resilience

A new study has highlighted opportunities for interconnection and the importance of a diverse renewables mix in building resilience to future weather challenges.

The National Infrastructure Commission said the research it had commissioned from the Met Office indicated the potential advantage of complementary wind and solar technologies in dealing with variable meteorological conditions across the country.

The report reviewed the impact of a variety of extreme weather – from very cold winters that push up demand to summer ‘wind droughts’. The review highlighted the need for Intelligent deployment of renewables, combined with other sources of flexibility such as storage, demand management and use of interconnectors in order to maintain resilient energy supplies.

It said that increased innovation in forecasting techniques could also play a crucial role in enabling energy companies to take mitigating action ahead of any extreme weather event or to smooth out any dip in overall supply.

Analysis undertaken for the National Infrastructure Assessment also looked at the electricity system costs for a variety of different generation models up to 2050 and two options – heat pumps or the conversion of the gas network to hydrogen – for meeting future heat demand to replace natural gas.

The findings showed the costs of renewable technologies falling faster than those for nuclear, leading to the commission’s recommendation that the government should pursue a highly renewable generation mix up to 2050 through mass deployment of renewable technologies, while keeping the nuclear option open.

Chair of the commission Sir John Armitt said: “Violent storm events and excessively hot summers are a growing feature of our weather and highlight the need to deliver Net Zero. Prioritising renewable energy is essential to reach that goal, but the challenge created by intermittent supply is significant. The public will want reassurance that however extreme the weather, the lights will stay on.

“The first step is knowing what we face. This review gets us much closer to understanding the opportunities we have to adapt to the effects of adverse weather and what the right mix of generating supply is in response. Onshore wind and solar are vital components in creating truly flexible generation mix and government must therefore ensure they have a future route to market through contracts for difference.”

The commission said it aimed to use the new research to encourage a broader conversation with the energy sector and government.

Tom Butcher, head of industry consultancy at The Met Office, said: “We work across government and industry to provide the best possible independent scientific advice to help our customers solve critical problems on the timescales of weather and climate change.

“Decarbonising the energy system is a critical and complex challenge, and our work with NIC uncovers some fascinating weather and climate-related problems associated with maintaining the future resilience of the energy mix. The review has identified the need to develop a set of weather stress factors that can be used by energy modellers to properly test future configurations of the energy system.”