Sunak’s COP-out conundrum

The new prime minister appears to be wavering on his decision to attend the COP27 climate conference. Utility Week's policy correspondent David Blackman examines why a potential backlash in "blue wall" seats may force Rishi Sunak into his maiden U-turn.

Will he, or won’t he?

Just over a week ago, that was the question hanging over whether Boris Johnson would attempt a Napoleon from Elba-style bid to return to Downing Street just a few weeks after he had been ejected from Number 10.

However, following Johnson’s Waterloo at the hands of insufficiently enthusiastic backbench MPs, his ex-chancellor of the exchequer turned Tory leadership rival Rishi Sunak last week became the third prime minister in as many months.

Since entering No 10, Sunak has had a bumpy ride, with his own will-he-won’t-he moment quickly appearing. One of the new PM’s headaches has been prompted by an announcement last week that he would not be attending the COP27 climate change summit in Egypt. Against a backdrop of unnervingly warm weather for the time of the year, the PM’s apparent decision to stay in the UK has prompted a backlash from across the political spectrum.

The government has protested that Sunak wants to focus on putting the finishing touches on the government’s Autumn Statement on 17 November.

The backlash has been so severe that on Monday (31 October) environment minister Mark Spencer, one of Sunak’s key allies in his leadership bid team, said that the fledgling PM may go if time allows, opening up the prospect of his first U-turn.

At a time when so many voters are focusing on the bread and butter choices of eating or heating, Sunak’s calculation was no doubt that he could not afford to swan off to sunny Cairo to grandstand on the international stage.

However, while the Tories may have thought that a COP no-show might play well in their recently-won red wall northern and midlands seats, it may be a less smart move in the more affluent southern “blue wall”.

These Home Counties constituencies were impregnable, even during Tony Blair’s landslide years, but are now looking increasingly vulnerable to a pincer movement from the Liberal Democrats and Labour.

These areas’ Waitrose shopping voters, already turned off from the Tories by Brexit, are the kind of environment-minded folk for whom ex-PM David Cameron tailored his “vote blue, go green” strategy in the late Noughties.

However, even if Sunak decides to go to Egypt after all, his apparent reluctance to attend the COP27 event has resuscitated concerns that the new PM doesn’t really get the importance of climate change as an issue.

When he was chancellor of the exchequer, the Treasury often seemed to be a drag anchor on efforts to tackle global warming. With just two years to go until the next general election, a sizeable chunk of the sums allocated for energy efficiency in the Conservative 2019 election manifesto has yet to be allocated. His twin interventions earlier this year to tackle spiralling energy bills contained no extra cash for insulation efforts, which looks an increasingly sensible way of achieving permanent savings rather than a temporary sticking plasters.

Of course, it was Sunak’s job as chancellor to be the government’s bean counter in chief. However, the Cairo summit builds on last year’s COP26 event in Glasgow, which was widely seen as a diplomatic success that the UK government can capitalise on. Apart from anything else, the event gives Sunak an early opportunity to meet other world leaders like Presidents Biden and Macron.

The UK’s cost of living crisis is acute. However, the furore over COP27 may make Sunak realise that making the transition from chancellor to PM means more than swapping addresses in Downing Street: a wider angled mindset will be required too.