Switzerland’s nuclear exit?

Switzerland's plans to abandon nuclear energy in the wake of the Fukushima accident are not yet set in stone - and depend on the results of debates, consultations and a referendum. Siân Crampsie says it's not game over yet

The future of Switzerland’s nuclear energy industry hangs in the balance after the country’s parliament voted in favour of a nuclear phase-out.
The two houses of the country’s legislature have agreed on proposals that include a ban on licences for new nuclear power plants and the immediate shut-down of existing plants that do not meet safety requirements.
The government is now drawing up draft legal measures that should be ready for public consultation in the summer. However, it could be years before the legislation takes effect, and even then it would do so only after a ­referendum.
Like Germany, Switzerland’s about-turn on nuclear energy came in the aftermath of the Fukushima accident in March last year. Energy minister Doris Leuthard announced that the application process for new nuclear power plants would be suspended pending a report into events at the stricken Japanese plant.

Decision welcomed
“The industry welcomed this decision,” says Matthias Rey, spokesman for industry body Nuklearforum Schweiz. “We wanted to draw conclusions and learn lessons from what had happened in Japan and use this in the application process [for new plants].”
However, in May the government announced a new energy strategy centred on a phase-out of nuclear power in Switzerland by not replacing existing capacity. Several proposals were debated in the lower and upper houses of parliament, resulting in an agreed text that would allow existing plants to continue operating, provided they complied with safety requirements.
Assuming safety standards are maintained, the proposals will lead to the closure of Switzerland’s last nuclear power plant in 2034.
The proposals say no licences for new nuclear power plants will be issued, and that a new energy strategy should be drawn up to show how Switzerland will eventually replace its nuclear capacity, which currently meets 40 per cent of the country’s demand.
The text also says Switzerland’s electricity supplies should rely as little as possible on imports and that the new energy strategy should not endanger the country’s economy or research capabilities.

Effects of closure
Closing nuclear power plants will have several adverse effects, says Rey. They include an increase in electricity prices, which could lead to the loss of manufacturing industries to other countries. There has also been a lot of debate about whether the decision will affect security of supply, and energy minister Leuthard has said that an increase in imports would be required to fill the gap.
There is also a question of what the impact will be on the wider European electricity market if the Swiss build more renewable and gas capacity to replace their nuclear plants. Currently, the country tends to export electricity produced by its pumped storage hydropower plants in the summer, but this capacity might not be available to other countries in a non-nuclear scenario.
The country is also likely to suffer in terms of greenhouse gas emissions. The Swiss generation industry enjoys an enviable position today in international league tables on emissions, thanks to the dominance of hydropower and nuclear. The building of a lot of gas plant would scupper this. Substantial technological developments in renewable energy will also be required for Switzerland to meet its ambitions, Leuthard says.
Germany’s move away from nuclear energy has been swift and certain, giving utilities a clear idea of where investments need to be made, but Switzerland appears less clear on its direction. Not only will it take years to enact the legislation, but the prospect of a referendum leaves the door open for the policy to be reversed.

Lengthy process
According to Rey, Switzerland’s parliament is unlikely to debate the legislation until late 2013 or early 2014, after a public consultation. Parliament could then call for a referendum, which would take place in 2015. Even if the vote was in favour of a phase-out, it could still be some time before the law was enacted.
This process leaves a hiatus in energy policy that could deter utilities from investing in new capacity, especially given the fact that public opinion on nuclear energy may have changed by 2015, resulting in a positive vote for nuclear energy in a referendum.
In addition, the proposals agreed in parliament seem to leave open the question of a return to nuclear energy in the future. They not only call for education and research into all energy technologies to be supported, but also require the government to report periodically on the development of energy technologies – and nuclear technologies in particular – and on the implementation of the energy strategy. Notably, a proposal to ban certain types of nuclear technology was rejected by parliament.
Rey says the applications submitted by utilities in 2008 for the construction of three new nuclear units have not yet been withdrawn. “We will wait until the law is in place, because only then will [the applications] become obsolete. The industry is waiting for a proper decision,” he said.

This article first appeared in Utility Week’s print edition of 13 January 2012.
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