The hung parliament and energy policy

David Blackman considers the general election fallout for key policy decisions

It was the coalition of chaos ‘what won it’.

Justifying her decision not to turn up to the BBC’s TV election debate in Cambridge, prime minister Theresa May mocked the other parties that did face the cameras for squabbling amongst themselves.

But the boot is on the other foot this morning following last night’s stupendous election result which has delivered the UK’s second hung parliament in seven years.

The result leaves the Conservatives short of an overall majority in the House of Commons with Labour increasing its representation to around 262 seats, an increase of around 30 seats on the party’s performance in 2015.

And compared to the last hung parliament experience in the UK in 2010, the fragmentation of the House is even more marked. Assembling a governing coalition is going to be difficult for both the Conservatives and Labour.

The Tories remain the biggest party and only around 10 MPs short of an overall majority but have fewer potential partners than Labour. The Scottish Nationalists, who still have the third largest bloc of MPs despite heavy losses overnight, are completely at odds with the Tories on Brexit and independence.

Ditto the Lib Dems, their former coalition partners. The lack of alternatives means that the Conservatives only reliable ally in the House of Commons are the Ulster Unionists.

Labour, around 50 MPs short of an outright majority, are even more hard pressed to find a workable coalition following the fragmentation of the minor parties.

The likeliest outcome therefore is that the Tories will limp on as a minority government.

But May’s authority as prime minister is shattered. The PM’s credibility had been eroding ever since the mid-campaign U-turn on social care, which instantly undermined the Tories’ central pitch of delivering strong and stable government.

May’s own position as PM is unlikely to be immediately challenged, but she is on borrowed time. Furthermore, Tory ministers and backbenchers are spitting feathers about the role played by May’s close adviser, Nick Timothy, who was the chief architect of the party’s manifesto.

Many have been reportedly called for Timothy to resign immediately a relevant morsel for energy leaders because Timothy’s vision of a more interventionist approach to economic policy underpinned the manifesto’s proposed price cap. 

Tory fury over the manifesto will fuel the backlash against any policies, like the energy cap, which are associated with Timothy. Those on the free market wing of the Conservative party, who were always uncomfortable with the price cap, will be sharpening their knives with particular relish.

The industrial strategy, which was being consulted on just before May called the election, also looks dead on arrival now. 

The election result can be interpreted as a rejection of May’s hard Brexit vision, under which the UK would be excluded from the internal energy market, the European emissions trading scheme and Euratom.

But though May’s mandate to carve out a Brexit deal of her own devising has been crushed. The absence of a clear result from last night’s election means the way forward is now on rocky ground. Decision-making across Whitehall will be stymied.

The uncertainty generated by yesterday’s general election is bad news for efforts to upgrade the UK’s energy infrastructure.

May was able to take last autumn’s controversial decision to push ahead with the Hinkley C nuclear plant partly because she had the confidence generated by a runaway lead in the opinion polls.

Whatever government emerges even the coming hours and days will now be in a weak position for making such tough calls about the UK’s long-term infrastructure needs.