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Energy bills in Conservative-led constituencies will see the greatest increase if the proposed rise in the Energy Price Guarantee (EPG) goes ahead on 1 April.
Data forecasts by Energy UK reveal that increasing the EPG level to £3,000 from April onwards would lead to customers paying an extra £2.7 billion between April and June (with the energy price cap predicted to dip below the current £2,500 EPG level in July).
Depending on where you live, this equates to an additional energy payment of between £27 and £65 per person.
Customers living in the Liberal Democrat-led Orkney and Shetland constituency are forecast to see the greatest increase (£65 per person), with those living in Labour-led Bethnal Green and Bow seeing the smallest price increase (£27 per person).
Within the 25 constituencies forecast to see the biggest increase in bills, 15 are Tory-led with many of the areas represented by Cabinet members. This includes chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s constituency of South West Surrey, which would see an additional £53 cost per person.
Constituents in Esher and Walton, represented by deputy prime minister Dominic Raab, would pay an additional £56, while those living in Michael Gove’s electoral area of Surrey Heath would have to pay an extra £50 if the EPG is increased. Those living in prime minister Rishi Sunak’s constituency of Richmond (Yorkshire) would have to pay an additional £43 to cover the EPG hike. (See table below for breakdown of areas forecast to be most affected by EPG rise.)
Pressure has been mounting on the government to keep the EPG at its current level and reports in national newspapers last weekend suggest that Hunt will do just that.
A source close to the government told Utility Week that “it’s pretty clear it’s going to happen” when asked if the lower limit would stay in place. The source added that while suppliers have not been given a final decision, “they have been told to prepare for the eventuality” that the current £2,500 EPG level will be extended.
However, it has also widely been reported that Hunt will not confirm the £2,500 EPG extension until his Budget announcement on 15 March.
This would give suppliers just two weeks to prepare for any changes coming in on 1 April. Most firms will be telling customers of changes to their bills in the coming weeks and as such they have called for clarity on the EPG sooner rather than later.
Energy UK chief executive Emma Pinchbeck said: “We’ve been urging government, and the Treasury in particular, to take the opportunity provided by falling wholesale prices reducing the cost of the scheme and hold the EPG at £2,500 to provide much needed respite for customers.
“The figures published show how much could be saved in each constituency, if this happens. What’s key is that any decision is announced soon to avoid confusion for customers and to ensure it can be implemented in time.”
Matthew Cole, chair of Fuel Bank Foundation, said that a decision is needed to provide urgent clarity to both consumers and suppliers.
“The music does suggest that a change is a-coming,” Cole said. “Households across the country want surety about what they will need to pay for energy this spring and so it’s critical that the details of any reduction from the planned £3,000 EPG – or indeed confirmation that it’s not changing – are shared as soon as possible.”
Constituencies forecast to be most impacted by EPG increase:
| Constituency | Party | Increasing the EPG from £2.5k to £3k will cost constituents this much April-June 2023 | Cost per person |
| Orkney and Shetland | Liberal Democrat | £2,900,000 | £65 |
| Argyll and Bute | Scottish National Party | £5,300,000 | £61 |
| Beaconsfield | Conservative | £5,900,000 | £57 |
| Mole Valley | Conservative | £5,500,000 | £56 |
| Esher and Walton | Conservative | £6,400,000 | £56 |
| Ross, Skye and Lochaber | Scottish National Party | £3,900,000 | £55 |
| Na h-Eileanan an Iar | Scottish National Party | £1,500,000 | £55 |
| Chesham and Amersham | Liberal Democrat | £5,300,000 | £55 |
| Westmorland and Lonsdale | Liberal Democrat | £4,600,000 | £54 |
| Tatton | Conservative | £4,700,000 | £54 |
| The Cotswolds | Conservative | £5,600,000 | £54 |
| Henley | Conservative | £5,400,000 | £53 |
| South West Surrey | Conservative | £5,700,000 | £53 |
| Kensington | Conservative | £6,000,000 | £53 |
| Brentwood and Ongar | Conservative | £5,100,000 | £52 |
| Sutton Coldfield | Conservative | £4,800,000 | £52 |
| Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross | Liberal Democrat | £3,200,000 | £52 |
| Macclesfield | Conservative | £4,800,000 | £52 |
| Arundel and South Downs | Conservative | £5,300,000 | £51 |
| Derbyshire Dales | Conservative | £4,200,000 | £51 |
| Windsor | Conservative | £5,500,000 | £51 |
| Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey | Scottish National Party | £5,500,000 | £51 |
| South West Hertfordshire | Conservative | £5,600,000 | £51 |
| Chelsea and Fulham | Conservative | £5,500,000 | £51 |
| East Surrey | Conservative | £5,800,000 | £50 |
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