UK should aim for 80GW of North Sea offshore wind by 2050

The UK should aim to install 80GW of offshore wind in the North Sea by 2050, a new report from WindEurope has recommended.

However, doing this at the lowest cost would require a new approach to maritime planning as large parts of the sea are currently inaccessible to developers.

The report examines the EU Commission’s goal to raise offshore wind capacity in Europe from 20GW today to between 230GW and 450GW by 2050.

WindEurope concludes that the top end of this range is achievable. It says nearly half – or 212GW – should be built in the North Sea. Of this, 80GW should be deployed in UK waters, giving the country a sizeable lead over other member states.

But it says developers are currently unable to build windfarms across at least 60 per cent of the North Sea due to “exclusion zones” created for environmental reasons or to allow space for fishing, shipping and military activities.

Removing all of these exclusion zones would allow up to 380GW of offshore wind to be built in the area – 248GW at “very low cost” (less than €50/MWh), 130GW at “low cost” (€50-€65/ MWh) and 2GW at “medium” cost (€65-€80/MWh).

The same amount could still be deployed if these restrictions remained in place, but it would be significantly more expensive. Up to 4GW could be built at medium cost and 248GW at low cost. However, only 112GW could be deployed at very low cost.

Recommended offshore wind build in North Sea

Source: WindEurope

The report says governments should explore the possibility of allowing multiple sectors to use these space at the same time.

“Challenging the status quo on spatial planning is essential to getting the most out of the steep cost reduction in offshore wind over the last 5 years,” it argues.

“With the current exclusion zones, almost three quarters of the future offshore wind power capacity cannot be built at a very low levelised cost of energy in the North Seas.

“Considering society’s aspirations for a cost-effective energy transition, this should be a wake-up call for policy-makers and sea space planners.”

It also notes that to achieve the commission’s goal, annual installation rates across the EU would need to rise from 7GW in the late 2020s to over 20GW in the late 2030s.

As it typically takes more than a decade from the start of development for an offshore windfarm to begin generating power, the report says there needs to be a significant uptick in site allocation and consenting from 2020 onwards. It therefore urges governments to ensure that planning authorities have “the necessary expertise and resources to consent enough sites.”

WindEurope chief executive Giles Dickson said: “The EU says Europe needs at least 10 times as much offshore wind as we have today to meet the 2050 goal of decarbonising energy. The International Energy Agency believes offshore wind could become the number one source of power generation in Europe in the early 2040s.

“The report shows that it is do-able and affordable. But three things need to happen: the offshore wind supply chain keeps growing; we build the grid connections; and we get the maritime spatial planning right.

“The wind industry is ready to expand the supply chain provided governments give long-term visibility on volumes and likely revenues.”