UK faces 5bn litre daily water deficit by middle of century

The UK will need to find an additional 4.8 billion litres of water a day by the middle of the century.

The Environment Agency has increased its forecasts for the shortfall of water supplies in England and Wales by 2050 by almost an extra billion litres daily.

Previously, forecasts calculated that without intervention there would be a daily deficit of 4 billion litres. That figure has now been revised to 4.8 billion litres each day.

The new figure was confirmed in the regulator’s updated review of company’s water resource management plans (WRMPs), which states the difference between the sustainable water supplies available and the expected demand due to updated demand patterns.

The additional water needed to meet demand by the middle of the century will be more than a third of the 14 billion litres currently put into public supply.

Companies create statutory WRMPs every five years for their region. For the first time, inter-regional resource plans have been devised that recognise the interplay of supply and demand between different companies within an area.

The revised WRMPs will deliver a 22% reduction to the amount of water used by 2038 compared to the 2019-20 baseline. This exceeds the target set in the Environment Act to reduce per capita consumption (PCC) by 20% by that date.

The Environment Agency stressed that in the short term it will be “crucial” to rely on demand reduction because infrastructure schemes to add new supplies will take five to 10 years to be completed.

The regulator updated its response to the company’s draft plans, which are subject to regulatory approval as well as for funding to be permitted through Ofwat’s price control (PR24). Ofwat will publish its draft determinations on business plans in May to June, before final determinations in December.

Once finalised, the Environment Agency said, the effective delivery of these plans will be extremely important to ensure sustainable growth. It warned that if delivery is unsuccessful, the country will face growing water supply deficits.

Chair of the Environment Agency Alan Lovell recently cautioned that the next drought is not far away and described the dry summer of 2022 as “a warning shot fired and a wake-up call for what’s to come.”

He advocated for compulsory water metering in all areas, not just those currently categorised as water-stressed, at the annual Waterwise conference.

Lovell also said water companies should not shy away from implementing hosepipe bans as a visible reminder to the public to be aware of water consumption.

A review of WRMPs commissioned by Ofwat found an overreliance on emerging processes, technologies and innovations within plans; overly prescriptive guidelines for plans that have grown in complexity over the years; and a need to overhaul the culture around water resource management planning.