UK shale gas capacity is ‘lower than previously thought’

Shale gas reserve capacity in the UK is potentially lower than previously thought, research from the University of Nottingham has suggested.

A 2013 estimate suggested shale could provide up to 50 years’ worth of current gas demand for the country.

However, new research from the university’s faculty of engineering and the British Geological Survey (BGS) suggests that there is significantly lower available reserves which correspond to less than 10 years’ supply at current demand.

According to the university the 2013 data on Bowland shale was based on a desk stop study, using data from the US estimating the shale gas resource as opposed to the actual reserve.

This meant that key differences in the composition of shale in the UK compared to the US could not be taken into account at the time. New estimates however are derived from actual UK shales, using gas generation absorption data, which is further supported by field data.

Professor Colin Snape, director of the centre of doctoral training in carbon capture and storage and cleaner fossil energy, said: “We have made great strides in developing a laboratory test procedure to determine shale gas potential.

“This can only serve to improve people’s understanding and Government decisions around the future of what role shale gas can make to the UK energy’s demand as we move to being carbon neutral by 2050.”

Professor John Ludden, chief executive at the BGS, said: “This study further enhances our understanding of the shale gas potential of UK onshore basins.

“These data are of value for companies in helping them optimise their shale gas extraction technology and exploration. It is to be expected that shale gas reserves will vary across sedimentary basins depending on rock-composition, organic carbon contents and fracture and faulting patterns.”

Ken Cronin, chief executive of UK Onshore Oil and Gas (UKOOG), took issue with the way the research was conducted however.

He said: “Nottingham in their research have analysed a limited amount of core from one Bowland shale well drilled in 2011, which was subsequently decommissioned without hydraulic fracturing or flow testing. There was no calibration with the US or any interaction with the company that drilled the well.

“The industry is currently in the process of exploration in various parts of the Bowland Shale to test the geology and whether the gas will flow commercially.

“This involves 3D seismic surveying, core drilling, hydraulic fracturing and flow testing. To date we have made significant advancements in the understanding of the resource potential contained within UK shale.

“What we know now is that we have a world class resource which has broadly supported the estimates originally published by the BGS. Indeed, in terms of potential gas flow indications, the results are at the upper end of our original forecasts.

“Neither do we agree with the generalisations and assumptions used by the authors of this research regarding the uniformity, nature and quality of the rocks and reservoirs. One of the largest lessons learned from the USA’s shale revolution is that shales are not homogenous and that well location, even within a single basin, can be paramount to the success of the well. It appears that no basin variation factors have been significantly considered in this generalised study.”