UKPN plans to bolster capacity at 98 substations

Electricity demand is forecast to outstrip current capacity at 98 substations run by UK Power Networks (UKPN) within the next five years.

In its first ever Distribution Network Options Assessment report, UKPN outlines where and when it needs to secure additional electrical capacity in the next five years to address forecasted pinch points.

More than half (51) of the substations identified are in UKPN’s East of England region, with 33 in need of additional capacity in the South East and 14 in London.

In response, UKPN has launched flexibility tenders where network load is expected to be greater than capacity in the next three years. It has also signposted its intention to launch flexibility tenders for substations where capacity is due to be tight in 2026/ 27.

A methodology report released alongside the assessment adds that UKPN “always want to have flexibility as [its] first option” as it is “the economically optimal solution”.

However it concedes that “flexibility is unlikely to be secured or is uneconomic to do so […] when the level of capacity shortfall is more than 20MW or/and the duration of the capacity shortfall is longer than three or four hours”.

It adds: “In certain scenarios it may also be possible to use hybrid solutions that combine a number of potential options. For example, it may be the case that an identified need is addressed partially by a flexibility service and the residual requirement through a small reinforcement scheme, or an operational solution.”

The forecasts are based on the projected uptake of low carbon technologies such as heat pumps and electric vehicle charge points. The report adds: “As more people opt for low-carbon, electric alternatives, the demand on the electricity network continues to rise, forecasted to double by 2050.

“Flexibility is a rapidly emerging marketplace that can offer network companies a cost-effective additional capacity on the network at peak times as an alternative to the traditional method of building new infrastructure.”

This is the first time that this process and the outcome have been published. It was one of the commitments made in May when UKPN launched as the country’s first ever independent DSO.

Sotiris Georgiopoulos, UKPN DSO director, said: “Transparency is key to building trust in our marketplace, and this document is part of our commitment to demonstrate transparent and clear decision-making.

“It sets out very clearly how we evaluate traditional network options against flexible alternatives, where there are opportunities for new capacity on the network and what decisions we will make to ensure we continue to deliver a fit-for-purpose network for the energy transition to net zero, at lowest cost for our customers.”

The government has this week signalled its intention to unlock “untapped” flexibility markets. Launching its £2.6 million Flex Markets Unlocked Innovation Programme, the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero pledged to find technical solutions “that can facilitate system-wide coordination, standardisation, and revenue stacking across multiple flexibility markets [to] allow a more diverse and competitive marketplace, unlocking flexibility”.