Urgent action needed as low-carbon generation stutters

Growth in low-carbon electricity generation stalled in 2019 despite almost a fourfold year-on-year increase in coal-free days.

Carbon Brief’s analysis of electricity generation last year shows a 1TWh increase from low-carbon sources between 2018 and 2019 – a rise of 0.6 per cent. This compares to a 3.5 per cent rise in the previous 12-month period and a doubling since 2010.

The figures, which are sourced from Balancing Mechanism reports and government figures for the first three-quarters of the year, show generation from renewables up 9 per cent (10TWh) year-on-year. However, nuclear fell by 14 per cent (9TWh) after ongoing outages at Hunterston and Dungeness.

Fossil output fell by 6 per cent (or 9 TWh) in 2019 and ends the decade at half 2010 levels, with coal falling another 60 per cent during the year (10 TWh). Gas rose by 0.7 per cent (1TWh) but has dipped by a quarter over the 2010s.

There were four months in 2019 when renewables generated more electricity in the UK than fossil fuels (March, August, September and December). There were also 137 individual days with renewables outpacing fossil fuels and a record 83 days when no coal was used to generate electricity. The first coal-free day came in 2017, when it was one of two, while 2018 saw 21.

Dr Simon Evans, of Carbon Brief, told Utility Week that the figures underlined the need for a clear strategy to reach the target of cutting the carbon intensity of electricity generation to 100gCO2/kWh by 2030.

He said this would require low-carbon generation to increase by 57 per cent – from 176TWh in 2019 to 276TWh in 2030. Supplies will also be needed to replace old nuclear plants such as Hunterston and Dungeness as they retire. Hinkley C will replace 40-50 per cent of this 50-60TWh of lost low-carbon output.

He said the government’s target for 40GW of offshore wind is not certain to be sufficient to reach the 2030 target without increases from other low-carbon sources such as onshore wind, solar or additional new nuclear.

He told Utility Week: “Annual increases in low-carbon generation need to roughly double from the average 9TWh in the 2010s to more like 15TWh in the 2020s, just to meet the 100gCO2/kWh benchmark while old nuclear plants retire.

“This is likely the bare minimum as we head towards net-zero by 2050 and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Committee on Climate Change recommending a tighter power sector benchmark as part of its advice on the sixth carbon budget, which is due in September.

“There is currently a decent pipeline of new offshore wind schemes secured via the Contracts for Difference auctions but much more will be needed to reach the 40GW target. However, if that 2030 benchmark is tightened, if demand is higher than expected or if windfarm load factors are low, then further contributions are likely to be needed from onshore wind, solar, further new nuclear or gas with carbon capture and storage.”

He added that with the offline nuclear capacity is due to return to service over the next few months, low-carbon generation could be expected to see a healthier increase in 2020.

The statistics also show another overall reduction in UK electricity generation (-9TWh, 3 per cent). UK generation per capita in 2019 is an estimated 4.9MWh per person, the lowest since 1983.

Energy UK’s interim chief executive Audrey Gallacher said: “While these figures show just how much progress the energy sector has made in moving to cleaner sources of power and reducing emissions over the past few years – they are also a stark reminder of how much further and faster we have to go with the net-zero target in place.

“The amount of low carbon power produced has doubled over the last decade but we need to go above and beyond that to keep pace with our climate change targets, especially with overall demand set to increase – rather than falling as it has done in recent years.

“This underlines the urgency of increasing all forms of low carbon generation – and why we need to see Energy White Paper as soon as possible with action and policies that can enable the required investment and innovation to make this happen.“

RenewableUK’s director of strategic communications, Luke Clark, said: “As the new government gets down to work at the start of a new decade, our energy policy has to support the full range of clean power sources which we need to reach net zero. Offshore wind will be the backbone of Britain’s future clean energy system, with 40 gigawatts installed by 2030, but to meet our targets we need to double down on all of our renewable resources by unblocking onshore wind and maximising the potential of innovative technologies like floating wind and tidal power”.

The statistics also show another overall reduction in UK electricity generation (-9TWh, 3 per cent). UK generation per capita in 2019 is an estimated 4.9MWh per person, the lowest since 1983.