The energy secretary has all but confirmed he won’t be at Decc in six months, regardless of the result of the election, so who is likely to fill his shoes? Lucinda Dann runs through the candidates.

It is clear from public comments made in the past few weeks that Ed Davey sees his tenure as secretary of state for energy ending in May at the general election. Fears expressed over “short term populist” policies potentially damaging the sector and calls for continued “cross-party consensus” hardly suggest Davey has “manning the energy helm” scheduled in his diary after 7 May.

In fact, when questioned he went as far as to say it was “likely” he wouldn’t be continuing. Whether this is because Davey is feeling pessimistic at the chances of still being in the government after the election – considering his party’s current support levels – or because he has loftier ambitions to become leader of his party, remains to be seen.

So as Davey starts his long farewell to colleagues at the Department of Energy and Climate Change (Decc), who are the likely candidates to step up to the plate?

Front Runners

Caroline Flint, Labour

Unlike Davey, the shadow energy secretary has the role firmly pencilled into her diary for next year. She has already made it clear in her response to the annual energy statement last week that she has no plans to go anywhere other than from shadow secretary for energy to actual energy secretary.

In the three years since she stepped into Davey’s shadow, Flint has been instrumental in introducing and pedalling Labour’s publicly popular price freeze pledge, and has laid out Labour’s plans to bring in more competition, transparency and investment into the energy market. She also plans to lead the abolition of Ofgem, replacing it with a new, tougher watchdog, and the creation of an Energy Security Board. With Labour still maintaining a slight lead in the polls, Flint has to be seen as the bookies’ favourite to follow Davey, and Labour leader Ed Miliband, to become the UK energy secretary.

Mathew Hancock, Conservatives

Hancock is the most senior Tory MP within Decc, and that makes him the most likely candidate from the blue corner of the Commons to step up to the role, although this relies on David Cameron remaining in Number 10, leading a Conservative government.

Hancock is the current energy and business minister, having been shuffled in July when his predecessor, Michael Fallon, left for the Ministry of Defence. As minister for business he is responsible for the low-­carbon business sector – a pet subject for the minister, who talks more on business than energy – and the UK Green Investment Bank, which provides funding for renewable projects in the UK.

He has a history of opposing onshore windfarms – something the Tory top brass will have taken notice of, especially as the party plans to stop any new onshore wind developments. In 2012 Hancock wrote to the prime minister demanding the slashing of subsidies for onshore windfarms, and opposing plans for new turbines in his West Suffolk constituency. “The visual and other impact of the proposed turbines is completely unacceptable in this attractive rural corner of Suffolk,” he said.

His staunch opposition to onshore wind, coupled with a close relationship to business, will have won him fans within the Tory party, and may have opened up a path to the Cabinet table.

Stephen Lloyd, Liberal Democrats

Should Davey choose to turn down the opportunity to continue as energy secretary (assuming such an opportunity manifests itself), the man trailing in his wake for the Liberal Democrats is his private parliamentary secretary, Stephen Lloyd.

When appointed at Davey’s private parliamentary secretary, Lloyd was enthusiastic, calling it “a tremendous opportunity”
and “a task he welcomed enormously”, allowing him to work towards ensuring the coalition remained the greenest government ever.

The MP for Eastbourne and Willingdon has a wealth of parliamentary experience under his belt from chairing and vice-chairing a number of key all-party parliamentary groups such as those for Citizens Advice and Trading Standards.

However, with Labour unlikely to give up a department that will house their flagship policies, and the Tories already ruling out a future coalition, Lloyd looks unlikely to move out from Davey’s wing, even if he is an avid supporter of the green economy and low-carbon generation.

Long shots

Peter Lilley, Conservative

Rumoured to be a big voice behind the Conservative’s energy policies for their manifesto, but his climate change scepticism will count against him.

Tom Greatrex, Labour

Has the background as the current shadow energy minister and past member of the Energy and Climate Change select committee (ECCC), but is only a solid second choice to Caroline Flint.

Robert Smith, Liberal Democrats

The ECCC member has a wealth of experience in the sector, but with the Lid Dems facing “political annihilation” at the election, the odds of taking up office in Decc remain long.